Tornado Warning 11, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
621 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WEST SHORTLY. HAVE TRIED TO TIME CONVECTION AT THE
TERMINALS...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY...WITH RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN BREAKING UP OVER THE FOUR SOUTHERN SITES BY
MID DAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF CONVECTION...AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL...IN FIRST TO SECOND PERIOD...AS THE STORM MOVES
THROUGH. THEN NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION...POSSIBLE SEVERE...LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL STAY UP WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

LIGHT CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF WEST AND NORTHERN
AR THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN JUST A
FEW TENTHS. NOT SEEN MUCH PAST I30 TO 167 AND TO THE EAST. WARM
FRONT WAS LIFTED A BIT MORE NORTH TO NEAR THE AR AND MO STATE
LINE...WITH IMPROVING MOISTURE FLUX OVER THE STATE. EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON TO EVENING...BETTER FOCUS OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OUT
WEST...UNTIL THE UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE ACROSS AR LATER THIS EVENING
TO MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX AND JET FOCUS OVER EASTERN
OK AND NORTHWEST AR AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECT THIS TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL START WITH HIGH POPS AND SEVERE MENTION IN FORECAST WITH
EXPECTED TRENDS. QUITE A HOT AND DRY ATMOSPHERE BEHIND THE DRY
LINE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND AREAS TO EAST WHERE MOISTURE FLUX
AND DYNAMICS CAN MERGE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS.
WIND PROFILES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE A BIT FARTHER NORTH OVER
EASTERN OK INITIALLY...THEN PROGRESSING INTO AR THIS EVENING. ALL
SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIND...HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. MODELS ARE CLOSE WITH TIMING OF THE LOW ACROSS NW AR TO
SOUTHERN MO AROUND 04Z TO 12Z...WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN
AR AT 06Z...THEN OVER EASTERN AR AT 12Z. FRIDAY MORNING THE LOW
WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST...WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND PRECIP OVER
NORTH TO PARTS OF CENTRAL AR...THEN ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY
AND COOL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL
VALUES. THEN LATE SATURDAY AND ON SUNDAY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AFFECTS AR WITH THE CONTINUING ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. MODELS ARE COMING IN
WITH ELEVATED QPF...EVEN WITH THE SPEED EXPECTED. THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CHANGE SOME WITH LATER MODELS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AS
AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTHWEST U.S. A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF ARKANSAS MONDAY. WILL
KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER LOW.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DISSIPATE SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AGAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DECREASE THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&

AVIATION...58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
405 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-101000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
405 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DUE TO THE ENERGY WITH THE SYSTEM...LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE...AS MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LOST WITH SUNSET
APPROACHING. HOWEVER...EVEN ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH WIND SPEEDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH COMMON...WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AND BE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER JUST AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH OF FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTER
SUNDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE MANY FACTORS THAT NEED
TO COMBINE TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...AND THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS NEW DATA BECOMES
AVAILABLE. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
812 PM CDT THU APR 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TORNADO          MENA                    34.58N 94.24W
04/09/2009                   POLK               AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CONFIRMED TORNADO IN THE CITY LIMITS OF MENA MOVING WEST
            TO EAST FROM HIGHWAY 8 WEST OF TOWN. REPORTS OF HOUSE
            DAMAGED WITH WINDOWS BLOWN OUT...TREES DOWN AND POWER
            OUTAGES.

&&

58