Tornado Warning 1, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1133 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS OKLAHOMA...WITH LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BY LATE EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
THE STATE. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE REDUCED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS PRECIPITATION. CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. THIS EVENING STORMS HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST
ACROSS AR...WITH ONLY A FEW STORMS SHOWING SOME INTENSIFICATION...
WITH POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER OF
1.04 INCHES...A BIT DOWN FROM 21Z...BUT MORE UNSTABLE WITH LI TO NEG
5...CAPE TO 855 J/KG...BUT HELICITY DOWN A BIT. SE SURFACE WINDS
HAVE PICKED UP...AND WITH VEERING PROFILE...ISOLATED STORM ROTATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS STILL APPEARS TO BE
STRONG WINDS. TIME OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH MAIN
SURGE OF JET DYNAMICS AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AROUND AROUND 04Z IN
WESTERN AR...MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AROUND 06Z TO 09Z CENTRAL...
THEN 09Z TO 12Z IN EASTERN AR. EXPECTING SQUALL LINE WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED STORMS OUT AHEAD OF LINE...IE THE CURRENT SITUATION OVER OK
AND KS. SURFACE LOW STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER NORTHERN
AR...WITH STRONG SURFACE WIND THREAT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     53  60  37  60 /  90  40   0   0
CAMDEN AR         53  66  39  65 /  90  20   0   0
HARRISON AR       48  54  33  59 /  90  50   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    52  63  38  63 /  90  30   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  63  39  63 /  90  30   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     55  67  42  65 /  90  20   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      51  62  37  63 /  90  30   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  50  56  34  59 /  90  50   0   0
NEWPORT AR        54  61  39  61 /  90  40   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     54  65  41  64 /  90  20   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   50  59  35  62 /  90  40   0   0
SEARCY AR         53  62  39  62 /  90  30   0   0
STUTTGART AR      54  64  40  63 /  90  30   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BAXTER-
BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-SEARCY-SHARP-
STONE.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

AVIATION...60

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
845 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-111100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
845 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ACROSS ARKANSAS OUT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY LATE EVENING. A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...AND WAS PRODUCING A LINE OF STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.

THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE FRONT INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE WEE HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF WIND DAMAGE ARE
LIKELY...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD BE SPAWNED WITH SHEAR
REMAINING HIGH.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN ABOUT THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT RISK FARTHER EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
WIND SURROUNDING THE INCOMING SYSTEM. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH. GUSTS COULD
APPROACH 50 MPH IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THERE IS A LOT OF TREE DAMAGE IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DUE
TO AN ICE STORM IN LATE JANUARY. A LOT OF WIND WILL LIKELY DOWN
WEAKENED TREE BRANCHES...AND THIS COULD CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO
SOME HOMES AND BUSINESSES.

THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THIS EVENT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. RAINFALL TOTALS
THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY COULD EXCEED TWO INCHES. IN
GENERAL...WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN THE NORTH WHERE TREE DEBRIS SLOWS
RUNOFF OF RAIN WATER.

THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. PEOPLE IN ARKANSAS ARE
ADVISED TO CHECK LATER FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIT NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH
A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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