Severe Thunderstorm Warning 445, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
231 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL CONVECTION HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENED THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER THE MORNING...BUT SEEING SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN
AREAS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH STRONGER STORMS...DID SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. 12Z KLZK SOUNDING
HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 2 INCHES. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE
HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL AR...JUST NORTH OF KHOT TO NEAR KLIT AND TO
THE EAST. POOLING OF HIGH THETA-E AIR ALONG AND SOUTH OF
BOUNDARY...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. NORTH OF
BOUNDARY DWD POINTS HAVE LOWERED TO 60S. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THREAT HAS LOWERED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT UNTIL SUNSET...PULSE
STORM COULD BE SEEN. MAINLY A HAIL OR WIND THREAT. OTHERWISE...THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE PARALLEL...AS THE BOUNDARY IS STALLING
OVER CENTRAL AR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
POPS WILL BE NEED IN EVENING PERIOD DUE TO THE BEFORE MENTIONED
FACTORS. SOME LOWERING AFTER SUNSET TO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH
THE QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER AR...WILL NEED SOME CHANCE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH AR. NORTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. MONDAY WILL
BE THE LOW POP DAY...ONLY BECAUSE LIMITED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BUT MONDAY NIGHT TO
WEDNESDAY...MODELS DEPICT PLENTY OF ENERGY TO INCREASE POPS.
PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED...AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED. SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STRONG SHORTWAVE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
STRENGTH...TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH ALL
MODELS GIVING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR TO
BE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE LOWER THAN
NORMAL VALUES DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
OVERALL...NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM. LARGE SCALE
FEATURES SHOW A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE RIDGE FAR SOUTH AND WEST OVER MEXICO. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP ARKANSAS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW...KEEPING ANY
BOUNDARY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION. AND WITH WESTERLY WINDS AT
500MB AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON TIMING WITH
SHORTWAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT THEY DO
INDICATE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
STATE.

APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN
THE PERIOD SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...BUT WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  87  70  86 /  10  20  20  50
CAMDEN AR         70  90  73  84 /  40  40  40  50
HARRISON AR       65  87  67  86 /  10  20  20  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  89  72  84 /  20  30  40  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  89  72  84 /  20  30  30  50
MONTICELLO AR     70  90  72  85 /  40  40  40  50
MOUNT IDA AR      69  89  72  84 /  20  40  40  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  87  68  86 /  10  20  20  50
NEWPORT AR        68  88  71  85 /  20  20  20  50
PINE BLUFF AR     70  89  72  83 /  30  30  40  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  89  70  85 /  20  30  30  50
SEARCY AR         69  88  72  85 /  20  30  30  50
STUTTGART AR      70  89  72  84 /  20  30  30  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...61

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2009

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-271000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1130 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY...AND
STALL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY RE DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THIS FRONT LATER TODAY. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AS THE MAIN CONCERN. LIKELIEST AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHERE THE MOST
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS LOCATED. IN ADDITION...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL
IN NEAR THE STALLED FRONT AND STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY.
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEAK UPPER
FLOW...THIS FRONT WILL ALSO STALL OVER THE STATE.

SEVERAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
STATE THIS WEEK...AS MANY DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BRINGING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

58/61

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