Severe Thunderstorm Warning 404, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1216 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
KEPT VCTS IN MOST TAFS SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2009/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THIS EVENING TO REMOVE HEAT ADVISORY...BUT HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS...AS THERE ARE
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. THE NAM SHOWS RAINFALL DEVELOPING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MOVING INTO THE STATE...BRINGING
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS SHOWING
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH
HOT TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. WILL WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT LATER
TONIGHT...BUT HAVE UPDATED TO RAISE HIGHS ON THURSDAY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. THIS ALSO MEANS ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL MAY HAVE TO BE
ISSUED THURSDAY FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WILL LET MID SHIFT
LOOK AT LATER MODELS TO MAKE THE CALL ON THE HEAT ADVISORY AND
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  70  87  62 /  50  40  30  10
CAMDEN AR         98  74  93  69 /  20  50  40  20
HARRISON AR       89  68  87  59 /  40  50  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    97  73  92  67 /  20  50  30  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  73  90  66 /  30  50  30  20
MONTICELLO AR     97  74  92  70 /  20  50  50  20
MOUNT IDA AR      97  73  92  66 /  20  40  30  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  87  68  86  60 /  50  50  20  10
NEWPORT AR        90  71  87  63 /  50  40  30  10
PINE BLUFF AR     96  73  91  69 /  20  50  40  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   95  71  90  63 /  30  40  30  10
SEARCY AR         92  71  89  64 /  40  40  30  10
STUTTGART AR      94  72  90  67 /  30  50  40  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...60

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1030 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2009

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-161000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1030 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT SLIDES INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS
OVERNIGHT.

SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT HOT WEATHER TO
ARKANSAS RECENTLY WILL RELOCATE TO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL CREATE A
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE THE FRONT IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS SOUTHWARD.
ALONG THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP
FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO ARKANSAS FROM OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN.

SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TONIGHT IN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...AND THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1229 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

ARZ012-013-022-023-160615-
NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-VAN BUREN-
1229 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NEWTON...POPE...SEARCY AND VAN BUREN
COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

AT 1228 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARSHALL...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

AREAS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE BOTKINBURG AND DENNARD.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ADVISED TO EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE
TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1258 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

ARZ003-160700-
BOONE-
1258 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BOONE COUNTY UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

AT 1258 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OAK GROVE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

AREAS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE OMAHA...DIAMOND CITY AND LEAD
HILL.

FREQUENT...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ADVISED TO EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE
TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN.

44