Severe Thunderstorm Warning 321, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
255 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WEAK SFC BNDRY/CONVERGENCE AXIS WAS NOTED FM NW TO SE ACRS CNTRL AR
THIS AFTN. DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S HAVE POOLED ALONG THE BNDRY. WITH
AIR TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 90S...AFTN HEAT INDICES REACHED THE 105
TO 115 DEGREE RANGE OVR PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN AR. PLAN ON LETTING
HEAT ADVY TO RMN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.

WDLY SCTD CONVECTION WL ALSO CONT INTO THE EVENING HRS...MAINLY
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY. EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO
QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FOCUS WL CONT ON THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN THE COMING DAYS. THE
MODELS INDC THAT THE CENTER OF THE UPR RDG WL STAY TO THE W OF AR
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...A NELY SFC FLOW IS PROGGED ACRS
THE FA INTO THU...BRINGING A BIT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. HAVE
GENERALLY STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE REGARDING TEMPS THRU THE SHORT
TERM. FCST HEAT INDICES WL BE A CLOSE CALL REGARDING HEAT ADVY
CRITERIA. THUS...WL NOT PLACE ANY ADDITIONAL HEADLINES IN THE FCST
AND CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS.

A WEAK FNTL BNDRY IS FCST TO APCH NERN AR FRI/FRI NGT. COULD END UP
SEEING A SIMILAR SCENARIO LIKE TODAY...WITH A GOOD WARMUP AHEAD OF
THE FNT ALONG WITH WDLY SCTD CONVECTION. WL KEEP A DRY FCST IN PLACE
FOR FRI ATTM FOR CONSISTENCY AS UPR SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
RMNS LIMITED.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN THE
LONG TERM. DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE STATE SUNDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL AND
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BUT PRECIPITATION
LOCATION AND AMOUNT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION THE
BOUNDARY STALLS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-CLEBURNE-
CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-PERRY-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
&&

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...60

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
319 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

ARZ042-043-232050-
GARLAND-SALINE-
319 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN GARLAND AND WESTERN SALINE
COUNTIES UNTIL 350 PM CDT...

AT 319 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PARON TO LONSDALE...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ADVISED TO EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE
TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN.

57

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
321 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

ARZ040-232050-
POLK-
321 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR POLK COUNTY UNTIL 350 PM CDT...

AT 321 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF POLK COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE VANDERVOORT AND HATFIELD.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ADVISED TO EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE
TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN.

56

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
341 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

ARZ047-057-232110-
ARKANSAS-MONROE-
341 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR ARKANSAS AND MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL
410 PM CDT...

AT 340 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ST. CHARLES...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT ETHEL AND ST CHARLES.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ADVISED TO EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE
TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN.

56

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