High Wind Warning 1, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
605 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS MORINING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WALDRON TO SALEM. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL DRIFT NORTH TODAY AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTH.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS. GUSTS TO 40
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. TWO ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE FIRST ALONG A
DRYLINE MOVING OUT OF TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE SECOND
ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ITSELF LATE TONIGHT. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
STATE...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN/STALL ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST
AND SOUTHEAST...AND WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATER TODAY.

THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED THIS MORNING...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE TO THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN SCATTERED...AND
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTH. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TODAY...WITH
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH SEEING SOME SUN THIS MORNING.

SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND MAY APPROACH BUT NOT QUITE
REACH LAKE WIND CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

MAIN STORY WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE STATE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. UPPER
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA...WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST...AND BE OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW WILL MOVE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH THE NATURAL
STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN
OKLAHOMA...AND WILL APPROACH WESTERN ARKANSAS LATER THIS EVENING.
MUCH OF THE AREA IS UNDER A MODERATE RISK FROM SPC...WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IF ANY STORM DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BE WHEN
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE...ALTHOUGH HIGH SHEAR WILL BE
A DETERRENT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF NEAR 100 KNOTS WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. THIS CONTINUES TO SHAPE UP TO BE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW
CAPE EVENT...AND TORNADOES MIGHT GET TORN APART BEFORE THEY COULD
DEVELOP. INSTABILITY WILL THEN LESSEN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE COOLER OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HOWEVER...THE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING
ABOUT THE DAMAGING WINDS CONCERNS WITH THE FRONT. ALSO...THE SYSTEM
WILL DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE NATURAL STATE. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS ALONG THE
FRONT...PRESSURE FALLS AND THEN RISES WILL BE LARGE AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE
VERY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL ONLY HAMPER
CLEAN UP EFFORTS FROM THE LATE JANUARY ICE STORM ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS WILL HAVE TO MONITORED...AS A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...AS MOISTURE AMOUNTS WILL BE
HIGH OVER THE REGION. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND WITH SOUTH WINDS...THIS MOIST AIR WILL MOVE NORTH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH EXCEEDED TWO INCHES. THE DEBRIS COMES INTO
PLAY ONCE AGAIN...AS DOWNED TREES WILL IMPEDE RUNOFF...AND
VEGETATION IS DORMANT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA...WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN FOR DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH PRESIDENTS DAY
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN A
ZONAL FLOW TO START THE PERIOD. THE LOW WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
ARKANSAS. ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
UPPER LOW WILL ENTER THE WEST COAST SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE
MIDWEST SUNDAY. YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES MONDAY.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL APPROACH ARKANSAS FRIDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEEKEND DRY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A COLD FRONT
INTO ARKANSAS LATE MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  54  60  37 /  30  90  80   0
CAMDEN AR         72  55  66  39 /  60  90  40   0
HARRISON AR       69  49  54  33 /  40  90  60   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  54  63  38 /  50  90  40   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  54  63  39 /  40  90  60   0
MONTICELLO AR     73  56  67  42 /  50  90  60   0
MOUNT IDA AR      71  53  62  37 /  60  90  40   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  68  51  56  34 /  30  90  70   0
NEWPORT AR        70  55  61  39 /  30  90  80   0
PINE BLUFF AR     72  55  65  41 /  50  90  60   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  52  59  35 /  40  90  50   0
SEARCY AR         70  55  62  39 /  40  90  70   0
STUTTGART AR      72  55  64  40 /  40  90  70   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

AVIATION...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
110 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-111100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
110 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FRONT REMAINED STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION WAS HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN...AND THIS WAS KEEPING
THE ATMOSPHERE FROM BECOMING OVERLY UNSTABLE.

MEANWHILE...IT WAS BECOMING RATHER UNSTABLE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WERE CLIMBING INTO THE 70S IN TEXAS...AND GULF MOISTURE
WAS INCREASING. SHEAR VALUES WERE ALSO ON THE WAY UP...WITH MORE
TURNING OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT. THIS WAS AHEAD OF A POWERFUL STORM
SYSTEM IN NEW MEXICO.

AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS. GIVEN A LOT OF SHEAR...THE STORMS WILL TEND TO
ROTATE...AND TORNADOES MAY BE SPAWNED. SOME OF THESE TORNADIC STORMS
MAY BUILD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.

TOWARD MIDNIGHT...THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE. A FAST MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEE HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. AREAS
OF WIND DAMAGE ARE LIKELY...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD BE SPAWNED
WITH SHEAR REMAINING HIGH.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN ABOUT THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT RISK FARTHER EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
WIND SURROUNDING THE INCOMING SYSTEM. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH. GUSTS COULD
APPROACH 50 MPH IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THERE IS A LOT OF TREE DAMAGE IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DUE
TO AN ICE STORM IN LATE JANUARY. A LOT OF WIND WILL LIKELY DOWN
WEAKENED TREE BRANCHES...AND THIS COULD CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO
SOME HOMES AND BUSINESSES.

THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THIS EVENT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. RAINFALL TOTALS
THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY COULD EXCEED TWO INCHES. IN
GENERAL...WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN THE NORTH WHERE TREE DEBRIS SLOWS
RUNOFF OF RAIN WATER.

THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. PEOPLE IN ARKANSAS ARE
ADVISED TO CHECK LATER FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIT NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH
A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

46