Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
641 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

.AVIATION...
SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WL CONT TO IMPACT FCST SITES ACRS
NRN AND CNTRL AR THIS MRNG...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DVLPG OVR
SRN AR LATER TODAY. FNTL BNDRY WL RMN STATIONARY ACRS CNTRL AR
THRU TNGT. MVFR/IFR CONDS WL CONT WHERE CONVECTION PREVAILS. LIFR
CIGS OVR NRN AR EARLY THIS MRNG WL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THIS
MRNG. /58/44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009/

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
COLD FRONT IS HARD TO DEFINE ACROSS ARKANSAS...AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/
LEFTOVER MCS ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS. BASED ON INTERPOLATION...THINK
THAT FRONT IS ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...ROUGHLY FROM BLYTHEVILLE TO
FORT SMITH. NORTH OF THE STATE...ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
INTERACTION WITH THE 850 MB FRONT. STORMS ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS
ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT...AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL...MAINLY LARGE HAIL. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
STORMS...WILL LET SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EXPIRE AT 4 AM...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPING STORMS.

DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE STATE...HEAVY RAINFALL/
FLASH FLOODING IS THE MAIN CONCERN. WILL KEEP CURRENT FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AS IS...WHICH COVERS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. PWATS
WILL ONLY INCREASE WITH TIME...AND WITH THE FRONT ONLY MOVING SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL
WILL RESULT.

FOR TODAY...THE HIGHEST POPS AND ASSOCIATED QPF WILL BE NORTH OF THE
FRONT...OR ACROSS THE NORTHERN THREE ROWS OF COUNTIES. AS THE FRONT
SLIDES SOUTH OVERNIGHT...THE RAINFALL WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT...ENHANCING
RAINFALL RATES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 3
AND 5 INCHES...AND WITH MANY LOCATIONS NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK ALREADY
RECEIVING MORE THAN AN INCH TONIGHT...SOILS WILL BE SATURATED AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN.

MID TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING PACKAGE AS POTENTIALLY
HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY WHEN PERIOD INITIATES. IT
STILL APPEARS THE HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE
EVER SO SLOWLY MOVING BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE BY
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WILL
JUSTIFY KEEPING SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE SYSTEM FINALLY
CLEARS. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THIS TIME FRAME. NAM IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TRENDED THIS WAY AND
REMOVED THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MAIN CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WAS TO HOLD OFF ON POPS FOR
TUESDAY...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. POPS WILL DECREASE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER DRY...ALBEIT CLOUDY
DAY ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-031000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE STATE...INCLUDING
AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM ARKADELPHIA...TO PINE BLUFF...TO
STUTTGART. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...FLASH FLOODING WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN.

WHILE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THIS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ON SUNDAY...AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL AVERAGE ANOTHER ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE LATE SUNDAY...AND
PUSH THE FRONT EAST OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
RAINFALL.

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH SYSTEMS
MOVING IN EVERY OTHER DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

58

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
624 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

ARZ022-023-031-032-021225-
CONWAY-FAULKNER-POPE-VAN BUREN-
624 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CONWAY...FAULKNER...POPE AND VAN
BUREN COUNTIES UNTIL 725 AM CDT...

AT 624 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HECTOR...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

AREAS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE JERUSALEM...CLEVELAND...ST.
VINCENT...BIRDTOWN...CULPEPPER...CEDAR CREEK...CHOCTAW AND SOUTHSIDE.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ADVISED TO EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE
TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN.

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
733 AM CDT SAT MAY 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             DEER                    35.83N 93.22W
05/01/2009  E0.75 INCH       NEWTON             AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

61