Flash Flood Warning 86, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
214 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO ARKANSAS
FROM MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON...AS OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION
INTERACTS WITH HEATING OF THE DAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
BECOME STRONG...I THINK THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE PARTICULAR
CELLS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTION AND HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.86 INCHES OFF MORNING KLZK SOUNDING/.

AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY...THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE.
HOWEVER...AS UPPER TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...CONVECTION
WILL GET GOING ALONG/NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS CURRENTLY
FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO THE PANHANDLES REGION OF TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA...LIKELY FORMING AN MCS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS AROUND/A LITTLE BEFORE SUNRISE BEFORE WEAKENING.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
ARKANSAS...AND OUTFLOW/DAYTIME HEATING INTERACTIONS WILL BE NOTED.
INCREASING INSTABILITY/COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS TOO...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS AS WELL...AND AMOUNTS
NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER COULD APPROACH ONE INCH TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE...WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY...
AND HUMIDITY DECREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL STALL/WASH OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH WEAK SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH A TROUGH OVER NW CONUS COMBINED WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. BOTH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS RESOLVE A WEAK CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY...THEN BREAKING UP AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SE CONUS TOWARDS THE END
OF THE LONG TERM. SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW STARTS OFF RELATIVELY
WEAK...THEN PICKS UP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF KS AND NE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS. THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH FRIDAY LOOKING MAINLY DRY. WILL KEEP NEAR OR
JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  88  67  90 /  60  60  30  10
CAMDEN AR         75  93  71  94 /  30  40  40  20
HARRISON AR       69  85  64  87 /  60  60  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    76  90  70  90 /  40  50  30  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  90  70  91 /  40  50  40  10
MONTICELLO AR     75  93  73  93 /  20  40  50  20
MOUNT IDA AR      72  90  67  89 /  50  50  30  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  71  88  66  88 /  60  60  30  10
NEWPORT AR        73  89  68  91 /  50  60  30  10
PINE BLUFF AR     74  91  71  90 /  30  40  40  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  88  66  91 /  50  60  30  10
SEARCY AR         73  88  67  91 /  50  60  40  10
STUTTGART AR      75  90  71  89 /  40  50  40  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-111000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT OVER MISSOURI THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH
TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED...STORMS COULD BRING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...HEAT INDEX READINGS
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO 105 DEGREES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. INDIVIDUALS WORKING
OUTDOORS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEMSELVES FROM HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES...BY TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS AND DRINKING PLENTY OF
WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LARGE COMPLEX MONDAY
NIGHT...AND IF THIS COMPLEX FORMS...STORMS WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS
EARLY TUESDAY. IF THE STORMS DEVELOP...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...BEFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REENTER FOR
FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS GULF MOISTURE MOVES NORTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK
ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

58