Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
650 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN MCS RUMBLING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND EAST
OKLAHOMA WITH THE EASTERN EDGE IN ARKANSAS. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS.
THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO LATE TONIGHT.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE AREA THOUGH THUNDER
CHANCES WILL DECREASE. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING FROM OKLAHOMA
INTO ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING BACK BUILDING INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHERN TEXAS...WITH NEWLY
DEVELOPED CELLS TRACKING TOWARD SOUTHWEST OR WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. THIS MAY LEAD TO HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAIN...WITH ONE TO TWO
INCH AMOUNTS AND LOCALLY OVER THREE INCHES.

FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STATE...THE GROUND IS
ALREADY SATURATED FROM A RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT...AND IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO CAUSE HIGH WATER PROBLEMS.

GIVEN THE SCENARIO...WENT AHEAD AND POSTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF MURFREESBORO...MALVERN...
LITTLE ROCK...SEARCY AND BATESVILLE.

PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE HIT AND MISS LATER TONIGHT...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...
MAINLY DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN VERY MOIST...WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...AND WILL
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH AT/BELOW
NORMAL READINGS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE WOBBLING AROUND THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND
INTERACT WITH IT...AND THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT WOBBLES BACK INTO MISSOURI. BETTER CHANCES
WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH COMING DOWN
FROM THE ROCKIES PUSHES A FRONT BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     65  74  66  80 /  80  60  40  30
CAMDEN AR         64  81  67  84 /  50  40  20  20
HARRISON AR       63  74  63  76 /  80  60  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    64  78  66  83 /  80  40  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  65  78  66  82 /  80  50  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     65  80  67  84 /  40  40  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      64  77  66  82 /  80  40  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  64  74  64  76 /  80  60  40  30
NEWPORT AR        65  75  66  81 /  80  60  40  30
PINE BLUFF AR     65  80  67  84 /  50  40  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   64  76  65  81 /  80  50  30  20
SEARCY AR         65  76  66  82 /  80  50  30  30
STUTTGART AR      66  78  67  83 /  70  50  30  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-YELL.

&&

AVIATION...51

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
416 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

ARZ037-038-040-041-052-292145-
MONTGOMERY-PIKE-POLK-SCOTT-YELL-
416 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MONTGOMERY...PIKE...POLK...SCOTT AND
YELL COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 416 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF UNION HILL...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE ODEN.

56

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
438 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

ARZ037-040-041-292210-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SCOTT-
438 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MONTGOMERY...POLK AND SCOTT COUNTIES
UNTIL 510 PM CDT...

AT 438 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR UNION HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE ODEN.

56

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
540 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

ARZ037-038-041-292310-
MONTGOMERY-SCOTT-YELL-
540 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MONTGOMERY...SCOTT AND YELL COUNTIES
UNTIL 610 PM CDT...

AT 540 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF MUDDY CREEK WMA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE ALY AND ONYX.

56

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
650 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

ARZ053-054-062-300020-
CLARK-DALLAS-HOT SPRING-
650 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CLARK...DALLAS AND HOT SPRING
COUNTIES UNTIL 720 PM CDT...

AT 650 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CADDO VALLEY TO
GURDON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

AREAS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE SPARKMAN AND MANNING.

56