Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1021 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

.UPDATE...
WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE
FORECAST ON TRACK...AND ONLY ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS TODAY...WITH ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS WITH
SHOWERS. ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW 5 TO 15 MPH. TODAY A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OVER ARKANSAS...AND DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. WITH TROUGHS
OVER THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
BY WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE IS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AND THE STALLED FRONT
ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS
WILL SPREAD RAIN CHANCES NORTHWARD TODAY. AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS ARKANSAS...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. A COLD FRONT IN THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY IN THE NORTHWEST AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS
HOWEVER. IT WILL STALL THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING NORTH INTO MISSOURI
FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY
BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CHANGES LITTLE WITH CHANCES OF RAIN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...THEN DRYING MONDAY. THE CURRENT ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS
REPLACED WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH FROM THE
MS VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG
SOUTHEAST AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AR ON SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY NUDGES SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WHEN IT
WILL PUSH OUT OF AR ON SUNDAY. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH SLOW MOVEMENT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH ANY ADDITIONAL
DETAILS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE LOW. THEN
ON MONDAY...MODELS TAKE THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF AR...WITH A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN. QUITE SURPRISING COLD FRONTS ARE MAKING
IT THIS FAR SOUTH IN MAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO A BIT BELOW
NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY TO SUNDAY...THEN COOLER ON MONDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-131000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS
ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
FRONT THAT IS STALLED OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING...IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE...AS A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT WEST MOVES NORTHEAST. SOME
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ALSO INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MAIN AREAS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE RAIN ARE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOW...WITH
ONLY AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL ALSO BE IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS INTO ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE STATE ON THURSDAY...THEN LIFT
BACK NORTH BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. NOT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OUT OF
ARKANSAS LATER SUNDAY TO MONDAY...WILL THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
SEVERE STORM THREAT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

59

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
913 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

ARZ041-042-052>054-121455-
CLARK-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-
913 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CLARK...GARLAND...HOT SPRING...
MONTGOMERY AND PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL 955 AM CDT...

AT 912 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CADDO GAP...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

46