Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
428 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING CONCERNS WHERE THE SFC FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS THE STATE...AS WELL AS HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL FALL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED EARLY THIS MORNING
ALONG THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WAS LOCATED FROM NE TX INTO
CENTRAL AR...NE INTO S IL. SOUTHWARD PROGRESS HAS BEEN SLOW OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT FRONT STILL PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NE COUNTIES SEEING OVER 3 INCHES. LIGHT
WINDS AND SATURATED NEAR SURFACE LAYER HAS CAUSED AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG BEHIND THIS FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND S AR WERE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WERE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EXPECTING THE FRONT TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE AR
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WEAK VORT
MAX LIFTS OFF THE NE. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS
IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT NEARLY CALM AS WELL AS THE SATURATED SFC
LAYER. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS THIS EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
NEAR 3 INCHES POSSIBLE AS THERE IS DEFINITELY PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THROUGH THIS EVENING TO FALL IN SAME AREAS THAT SAW SOME HEAVY
RAIN THIS MORNING.

EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMS AS ANOTHER IMPULSE OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...LIFTING THE FRONT BACK
TO THE NORTH. UPPER FLOW WILL THEN BECOME MORE ZONAL...AND WITH
THE FRONTAL POSITION EXPECTED TO BE FURTHER NORTH...BEST POPS WILL
BE ACROSS N AR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STRENGTHENING SFC LOW OVER
THE PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL PUT THE STATE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...LOWERING POPS SLIGHTLY BEFORE INCREASING POPS ONCE AGAIN
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD TO HOVER IN THE 60S AND 70S
THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN THE 70S FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE UPPER ZONAL PATTERN WILL
ALLOW ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE AREA...AND AS SATURDAYS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER ARKANSAS...CHANCE POP REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
EACH DAY. SOME VARIATIONS IN THE POP FORECAST WILL BE DUE TO THE
EXACT LOCATION THE BOUNDARY STALLS. NORTHERN AR COULD BE COOLER AND
DRIER IF THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS TO SOUTH AR...WHILE WETTER IF IT HOLDS
MORE OVER NORTHERN AR. IF THE BOUNDARY STALLS OVER NORTHERN AR...
THEN SOUTHERN AR WOULD BE MILD WITH A LOWER CHANCE OF RAIN. CENTRAL
AR APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT LOCATION WILL BE FINE TUNED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. OVERALL
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL...WITH SOME VARIATIONS DUE TO
CLOUDS...AMOUNT OF CONVECTION...AND THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING OVER AR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  61  75  62 /  70  40  60  60
CAMDEN AR         75  64  81  64 /  70  50  40  30
HARRISON AR       67  58  73  61 /  40  60  70  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  64  76  64 /  70  50  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  64  78  63 /  70  40  50  50
MONTICELLO AR     76  65  80  64 /  70  50  40  30
MOUNT IDA AR      73  63  75  63 /  60  50  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  58  74  62 /  50  60  70  70
NEWPORT AR        75  62  76  63 /  70  40  60  50
PINE BLUFF AR     77  64  79  64 /  70  50  40  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   76  63  75  62 /  50  50  60  60
SEARCY AR         75  62  77  63 /  70  40  60  60
STUTTGART AR      76  64  78  64 /  70  50  40  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-
PERRY-PIKE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF.

&&

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-291015-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN AFFECT FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE EXPECTED PERIODS OF RAIN. A
COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SAG
TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS TODAY...AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AND DEVELOP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY BE SEEN...THE OVERALL THREAT
WILL BE LOW.

SOME RISES ARE EXPECTED IN THE OUACHITA RIVER BASIN AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LATER TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND BE THE FOCUS AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE STATE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN THE OVERALL CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER A BIT OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE A
BIT HARD TO PINE DOWN...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS MAY BE SEEN...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW.

ALSO...DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...SOME SIGNIFICANT RISES
WILL BE SEEN OVER THE OUACHITA RIVER BASIN AND ITS TRIBUTARIES IN
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WHILE ANY CRESTS CANNOT BE
QUANTIFIED AT THIS TIME...PEOPLE WITH PROPERTY...LIVESTOCK...AND
OTHER INTERESTS ALONG THE SALINE...LITTLE MISSOURI...AND OUACHITA
RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION IF NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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