Flash Flood Warning 113, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
342 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED.
SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED OVER 3 INCHES OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST
AREAS PICKING UP AT LEAST AN INCH. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST
WILL BE THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH A COUPLE OF COUNTIES TO
INCLUDE THE CLINTON AND RUSSELLVILLE AREAS...AND ALSO EXTENDED
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS
WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER WILL KEEP QPF
AMOUNTS LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK...OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL BE TO THE
NORTHEAST...BUT TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HAVE TRENDED POPS LOWER
THURSDAY NIGHT ON...BUT LEFT CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED IS SEEN...WITH THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
MOVING ENOUGH EAST OF AR...TO HAVE A MINIMAL AFFECT ON THE WEATHER.
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARED
BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MUCH OF MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY
FROM THE UPPER LOW PUSHING EAST...AND A COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE
AREA LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL TIMING OF
FRONT. POP ON MONDAY WILL BE ONLY SLIGHT. THEN LATE MONDAY TO
TUESDAY...MODELS DEEPEN ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AR...SO POPS COME UP AGAIN. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIP...WHILE NIGHT TIME LOWS ABOVE TO DUE MOISTURE LEVELS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.
&&

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-170945-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF RAIN...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
OVER ARKANSAS...AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...AS WELL AS HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WILL AFFECT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARKANSAS...WITH A
LESSER DEGREE OVER NORTH ARKANSAS. GROUND CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
MORE AND MORE SATURATED...AND MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS EXTENDED RAIN EVENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL BE COMMON...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN AFFECT FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS
THROUGH THURSDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR CONDITIONS IF FLOOD
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION. THE TREAT FOR ANY STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS
WELL AS INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM OVER ARKANSAS IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL STILL BE IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE
WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THIS WEEK. THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT ANY FLOODING WILL BE
MONITORED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

59

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1149 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009

ARZ042>045-054-056-160545-
GARLAND-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LONOKE-PULASKI-SALINE-
1149 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR GARLAND...HOT SPRING...JEFFERSON...
LONOKE...PULASKI AND SALINE COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

AT 1145 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
PRODUCING MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN. THE GROUND IS VERY
SATURATED AND THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. THE AREA HAS RECEIVED AROUND ONE INCH OF
RAIN OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...AND THE ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL
POTENTIALLY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING. THE AREA WAS MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH.
THIS WILL INCLUDE THE LITTLE ROCK AREA.

A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS FOR A FEW MINUTES...AND
THIS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ADVISED TO
EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN.

59

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1246 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NW DOWNTOWN LITTLE RO 34.76N 92.27W
09/16/2009                   PULASKI            AR   PUBLIC

            INTERSECTION OF REBSAMEN PARK ROAD AND CEDAR HILL ROAD
            FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE.

&&

58

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

ARZ022-030-031-038-039-160945-
CONWAY-LOGAN-PERRY-POPE-YELL-
345 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CONWAY...LOGAN...PERRY...POPE AND
YELL COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM CDT...

AT 343 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SHOWERS...PRODUCING MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY
RAIN. THE GROUND IS VERY SATURATED AND THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE AREA HAS RECEIVED AROUND ONE INCH OF
RAIN OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...AND THE ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL
POTENTIALLY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING. AREA WILL MOVE WEST AT 20 MPH.

ANY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IN LOW
LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ADVISED TO EXPECT REDUCED
VISIBILITY DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN.

59

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

ARZ016-024-025-032>034-161020-
CLEBURNE-FAULKNER-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
350 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CLEBURNE...FAULKNER...
INDEPENDENCE...JACKSON...WHITE AND WOODRUFF COUNTIES UNTIL 520 AM
CDT...

AT 349 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
PRODUCING MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN. THE GROUND IS VERY
SATURATED AND THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE.
THE AREA HAS RECEIVED AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN OVER THE LAST HOUR OR
TWO...AND THE ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL POTENTIALLY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING.
THE AREA IS MOVING WEST AT 25 MPH.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ADVISED TO EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE
TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN.

59