Tornado Warning 1, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
512 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE CAROLINAS
THURSDAY AND IT WILL TRACK UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TO START NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT THE NEXT BOUNDARY MAY AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE TO EXPAND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH SPATIALLY TO INCLUDE
ALL OF CWA...AS MCS OVER WEST VIRGINIA MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH
DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVER NW CWA. WILL UPDATE HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS
TO MATCH PRESENT WEATHER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

UPDATE TO INCLUDE THAT THERE IS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN
EFFECT UNTIL 00Z FOR ALL OF THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...WASHINGTON...BERKELEY...MORGAN...ALLEGANY...MINERAL...
AND HAMPSHIRE.

CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ALSO MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. PLENTY OF WARM AND HUMID
AIR SOUTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAS LED TO THE DESTABILIZATION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 2000 TO 2500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH A LITTLE LESS TO THE NORTH. THE
INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES AROUND
30 KNOTS...CONVECTION HAS A GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME WELL ORGANIZED.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WHICH MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR ALL AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO FOR THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE 850MB BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE
CAROLINAS THURSDAY. THE 850MB BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION...AND WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT...LEADING TO MORE RAIN THURSDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO CATEGORICAL THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SINCE ANY T-STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE ELEVATED. THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES
ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME BEFORE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN THE BOUNDARY DURING
THIS TIME RESULTING IN PRECIPITABLE WATERS TO BE ABOUT 1.5 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER TWO INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THE NEXT BOUNDARY WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH SHOWERS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG WITH SUBVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THE NEXT BOUNDARY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL DURING
THIS TIME.

GRADIENT WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA NEAR THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT.
WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO HOW
MARGINAL IT IS AND THE INFLUENCE ANY CONVECTION MAY HAVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WATERS THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES BY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ004>007-009>011-
     013-014-016>018.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ021-025-026-029-
     036>042-050>057.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ054.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BJL/BPP
NEAR TERM...SBK/BJL/BPP
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/BPP
MARINE...BJL/BPP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
523 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2009

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
041130-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
523 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. PLEASE REFER
TO WBCWCNLWX FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. ANY FLASH
FLOODING PROBLEMS COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
WILL TRACK UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
RAINFALL OF AN INCH OR MORE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...WHICH
WOULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE SKYWARN SPOTTER PROGRAM HAS BEEN ACTIVATED.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050-051-
WVZ050>055-501>504-041130-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-
HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
523 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. PLEASE REFER TO
WBCWCNLWX FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL MARYLAND ALONG WITH
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. ANY FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS COULD LINGER WELL INTO
THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
WILL TRACK UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
RAINFALL OF AN INCH OR MORE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WHICH WOULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE SKYWARN SPOTTER PROGRAM HAS BEEN ACTIVATED.

SBK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
639 PM EDT WED JUN 03 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             1 NE FREDERICKSBURG     38.31N  77.47W
06/03/2009  E1.00 INCH       CITY OF FREDERICKS VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MEADOWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
640 PM EDT WED JUN 03 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             0 NNW FREDERICKSBURG    38.30N  77.49W
06/03/2009  E1.00 INCH       CITY OF FREDERICKS VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON HOTCHKISS STREET

&&

SBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
643 PM EDT WED JUN 03 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     HAIL             STAFFORD                38.42N  77.41W
06/03/2009  E0.88 INCH       STAFFORD           VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED NICKLE SIZED HAIL AT
            INTERSECTION OF RTE. 3 95.

&&

MEADOWS