Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
255 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. A REINFORCING
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT AFFECTS THE REGION DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

RW/TRW HV DVLPD ACROSS THE CWA...AND SHOULD CONT FOR THE NEXT SVRL
HRS. CELL WARNED ON IN ERN W.V. SHOWING STRONG HAIL CORE ALOFT. WRF/ARW
SHOWS LN OVR OH PROGRESSING E INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR ARND 03Z. EVE
SHIFT WL MONITOR TO SEE IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. PCPN XPCTD TO BE MINIMAL
AFTER MDNGT.

AREA SHOULD RMN M CLDY OVRNGT W/ PTCHY FOG DVLPG. TEMPS IN M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

CD FNT PROGGED TO MOVE THRU THE I-95 DURG LATE AFTN FRI. SREF
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW BEST PTNL FOR SVR IN THE CWA WL BE E
OF I-95 DURG LATE AFTN IN GNRL AGREEMENT W/ WHAT SPC HAS DRAWN OUT
FOR DAY 2 SVR OUTLOOK. ANOTHER DAY W/ PLENTY OF CLDS...ALTHO PRBLY
MORE BREAKS THAN TDA. TEMPS M70S MTNS...L80S ELSEWHERE,

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA EARLY FRIDAY EVENING
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BRINGING A
RETURN OF COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME. DESPITE THE FORCING...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LACKING DUE TO DRY AIR. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS POPS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WHERE HIGHER TERRAIN AND UPSLOPE MAY PLAY A
FACTOR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT WILL
LIKELY STALL OUT OVERHEAD IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DISTURBANCES RIDING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /THIS EVE THROUGH TUESDAY/...

CIGS IN MVFR CAT MAY DCRS TO IFR OVRNGT AS FOG/LOW CLDS DVLP. IN
ADDITION TSTMS WL CONT TO FORM ACROSS THE MID ATLC RGN THRU AT
LEAST MID EVENG.

TSTMS PSBL AGN FRI AFTN ACROSS THE MID ATLC.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS KMRB. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING MORE VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS BLO SCA VALUES TNGT AND FRI. TSTMS THIS EVE AND LATE TMRW
AFTN WL BE THE BIGGEST PROBS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY EVENING
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE WATERS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE
NEXT BOUNDARY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

PRODUCTS...WOODY/BJL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

MDZ502-WVZ050-051-281915-
HAMPSHIRE WV-MORGAN WV-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY MD-
241 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT HAMPSHIRE...MORGAN AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALLEGANY COUNTIES...

AT 241 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LEVELS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS THAT WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE
OLDTOWN...TOWN CREEK...PAW PAW...MAGNOLIA...GREEN RIDGE AND PUMPKIN
CENTER.

WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW A MILE AND CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

KRAMAR

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