Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
313 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION IS ALREADY UNDERWAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS EARLY. AS CONFIRMED BY THE 19Z WTM
SOUNDING...AMPLE MIXING HAS OVERCOME THE WEAK INVERSION. S/W TROF
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT ENE FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS
PECOS REGION...SO CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTN ALONG/NEAR THE DRYLINE
THAT AS OF 19Z RESIDED FROM NEAR HART TO PLAINS. THUS FAR CONVECTIVE
WINDS OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED BY THE WTM
SITES...BUT THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION AND
LOCALIZED COLD POOLS. IN GENERAL...CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
TRANSITION FROM PRIMARILY WIND AND DRY LIGHTNING ON THE CAPROCK TO
MORE OF A HAIL...WIND AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT FARTHER EAST
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED.

OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT PRESENTLY IN THE NRN TX PANHANDLE IS ON
SCHEDULE TO ENTER THE CWA SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE A RENEWED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LIFT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED
ALONG THE DRYLINE-FRONT INTERSECTION. POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS STILL
EXPECTED TO FILL IN LATE TONIGHT...BUT DID TREND LOW TEMPS A BIT
COOLER AS THE FRONT HAS ACCELERATED A BIT WITH RECENT NWP RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE ANTICIPATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO HAVE SWEPT WELL
SOUTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER FORCING/
ASCENT ABOVE THE POST FRONTAL COLD DOME IS PROGGED TO BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUSTAIN ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IN ITS WAKE. HIGHEST GRIDDED POPS /60 TO 70 PERCENT/ REMAIN DRAWN
OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE BEST FORCING/QPF SIGNALS PERSIST IN THE
SOLUTIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THERE DEPICT DEEPLY SATURATED PROFILES
WITH PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.6+ INCHES. ELEVATED INSTABILITIES
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT REMAINS SUFFICIENT THROUGH
MIDDAY TO WARRANT SOME RISK OF LOW-END SEVERE HAIL. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SATURDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH AND
UPGLIDE/FORCING SUBSIDES AND COOL LOW LEVEL RIDGING INCREASES.

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS/FORECAST SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED MEDIUM RANGE TRENDS REMAIN VALID WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS. MEANINGFUL
RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW...AND THE MAIN QUESTIONS REVOLVE AROUND
THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EARLIER WE ISSUED A SHORT-FUSED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR DRY
LIGHTNING ORIGINATING FROM HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WEST OF DRYLINE. THIS IS WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED WITHIN A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH T/TD
SPREADS ON THE ORDER OF 40-60 DEGREES F. SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTS HAVE
RESULTED IN WILDFIRE STARTS THERE AND IN THE TRANS PECOS/
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AREAS EARLIER THIS WEEK. DRY LIGHTNING
WILL REMAIN VERY POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE
DOWNBURST WINDS... WHICH MAY INITIATE AND DRIVE WILDFIRES
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  64  45  75  48 /  30  30  10   0   0
TULIA         54  64  45  72  48 /  50  40  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     55  64  46  72  49 /  50  40  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     57  66  50  74  50 /  30  40  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       57  66  48  74  51 /  40  50  20  10   0
DENVER CITY   58  68  51  75  52 /  20  40  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    59  67  52  74  51 /  30  40  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     59  67  47  73  50 /  60  70  10   0   0
SPUR          60  66  50  74  50 /  50  60  20  10   0
ASPERMONT     63  70  50  74  52 /  40  60  20  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

93/20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
157 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

TXZ021>044-161900-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
157 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE
DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS
STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. STORMS WILL INITIATE ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE ROLLING
PLAINS.

FIRE WEATHER

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WILL PRESENT A THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING WHICH
MAY IGNITE WILDFIRES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. THESE STORMS MAY
ADDITIONALLY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE AND THE ROLLING PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
222 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

TXZ033-034-039-040-151945-
HOCKLEY TX-COCHRAN TX-TERRY TX-YOAKUM TX-
222 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS YOAKUM...TERRY...COCHRAN AND HOCKLEY
COUNTIES...

AT 218 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF PLAINS TO
10 MILES EAST OF LEVELLAND...DRIFTING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS TO OVER 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THESE STORMS IN
ADDITION TO HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE. DUE TO DRY GRASSES IN THE AREA AND
LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH THE STORMS...AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR A
WILDFIRE START WILL EXIST WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES.

LAT...LON 3373 10224 3336 10207 3313 10263 3347 10288
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 229DEG 16KT 3337 10251

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
412 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

TXZ024-025-030-031-152145-
BRISCOE TX-HALL TX-MOTLEY TX-FLOYD TX-
412 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS FLOYD...MOTLEY...HALL AND BRISCOE
COUNTIES...

AT 410 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM FROM NEAR BRICE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
QUITAQUE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.
BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

LAT...LON 3475 10069 3428 10085 3428 10126 3475 10110
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 250DEG 16KT 3441 10109

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