Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
353 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE IS THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TOWARDS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EAST TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT. 21Z RADAR
SHOWED CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM /ONE STORM
PRODUCED SLIGHTLY SMALLER THAN PEA-SIZE HAIL/. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY BUT GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION ALONG A 30KT SELY
LLJ...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT A TONGUE OF MOISTURE MOVING
NNWD TOWARDS THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER TONIGHT. A SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN FROM THE PECOS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS...WITH A DRY LINE AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT. THUS...THUNDERSTORM INTENSIFICATION SHOULD
INITIATE ACROSS/NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER TONIGHT. WITH
ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...LIFTED INDICES AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE
LIFT CREATES HIGH SEVERITY POSSIBLIITIES. FURTHERMORE...EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS COULD BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ATMOSPHERIC
INDICES. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT A MORE LINEAR CONFIGURATION
/SQUALL LINE/ IS MORE LIKELY. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO RECEIVE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS...NEAREST THE MOISTURE TONGUE...BETTER CAPE VALUES AND DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR.

SUNDAY...THE STORM WILL COMMENCE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH
GUIDANCE MODELS SHOWING A POSSIBILITY FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. THUS...HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY...SHOWING A NORTHEASTERLY PROGRESSION.

&&

.LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHING SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE NORTHEAST
SOUTH PLAINS AS THE PRIMARY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SLOWLY EJECTS
EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LITTLE/NO
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES GIVEN THAT THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE
LARGELY OF GREAT BASIN ORIGIN.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN IN THE FACE OF INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A NEWLY EVOLVING WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT MODESTLY MOIST RETURN FLOW
BENEATH SAID UPPER AIR PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT BY
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN HANDLING THE
DRYLINE PLACEMENT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE ECM-WF
CONTINUES TO PAINT A STORMIER PICTURE WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE DRYLINE LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERN UA TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DIG...AND IS MUCH WETTER BY FRIDAY WITH THE EJECTION OF A DEEP UA
LOW. MEANWHILE THE GFS MIXES THE DRYLINE EASTWARD WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UA FEATURE PASSING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL AINTAIN
THE IDEAS PRESENTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT WILL SHOW MORE OF
A GRADIENT IN GRIDDED POPS FAVORING THE EASTERN ZONES FOR A CHANCE
OF STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...UNTIL THE EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH/DRYLINE BECOMES MORE EVIDENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  60  37  69  39 /  60  50  30   0   0
TULIA         44  61  39  66  40 /  80  50  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     45  62  40  67  41 /  80  50  30   0   0
LEVELLAND     47  63  42  71  43 /  80  20  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       45  63  43  69  44 /  80  30  20   0   0
DENVER CITY   47  66  43  73  44 /  80  20  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  65  44  71  44 /  80  20  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     48  66  42  70  43 /  80  60  40  10   0
SPUR          49  68  43  71  44 /  90  40  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     50  72  43  73  46 /  90  40  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

29/20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1100 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

TXZ021>044-121600-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1100 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE TEXAS-NEW
MEXICO BORDER AND EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS TODAY...AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TODAY...A FEW ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO EXPERIENCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. ELSEWHERE...STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AS
THEY SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...FAVORING A LARGE HAIL THREAT. THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD ALSO INDUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY...
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1228 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

TXZ023-111800-
SWISHER TX-
1228 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SWISHER COUNTY...

AT 1228 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES WEST OF KRESS...OR ABOUT 12 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF TULIA...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
412 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

TXZ039-112145-
YOAKUM TX-
412 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN YOAKUM
COUNTY...

AT 409 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORM SOUTHWEST OF DENVER CITY...INCLUDING A
SEVERE STORM WITH LARGE HAIL NEAR HOBBS NEW MEXICO. THESE STORMS
WERE MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH AND WILL BE MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF YOAKUM COUNTY BY 430 PM.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

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