Severe Thunderstorm Warning 285, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1139 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2009

.AVIATION...
STORM COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAKING QUICK TRACKS
SOUTH THIS EVENING. STILL THINK COMPLEX WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE
AFFECTING KCDS TERMINAL...AS LATEST IR/RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN
DOWNWARD. THEREFORE...LOW CONFIDENCE OF THIS COMPLEX IMPACTING
KCDS BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z AND WILL NOT BE REFLECTED IN 06Z TAF.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KLBB TAF THROUGH 14/06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2009/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIMINISHED TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE AREA. DID RETAIN A ISOLATED MENTION ACROSS THE BOARD THROUGH
06Z AS WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP ALONG NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WITH THE LLJ TO GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO...TSTM CHANCES WILL HINGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
COMPLEX CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SW KS/OKLA PANHANDLE. BEST
ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE WITH SOME SWWD
PROPAGATION POSSIBLE. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCES TO
OUR NE ZONES AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE POP GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OZ NAM
RUNS PROGS SOME CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...COINCIDING WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
MID-LVL HEIGHT FIELD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2009/

SHORT TERM...
A CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO IS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO BUILD
ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
WERE LINGERING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLIER TODAY HAVE
DISSIPATED...BUT A COUPLE OF NEW SHOWERS HAVE JUST POPPED UP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR THE CAPROCK CANYONS STATE PARK.
WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY DRIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTH ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK...BEFORE WEAKENING
AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE MAIN THREATS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE LIGHTNING...BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS....AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THUS...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

THE FORECAST TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FOR THE MOST PART...BUT
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS ROLLING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM/CO INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE LUB CWA AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. STILL...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR
MOST LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S ON THE CAPROCK...TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ON THE
ROLLING PLAINS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT AND BUILD OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY. A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER
DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
OCCURRING FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH THE MERCURY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S IN SEVERAL AREAS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWER TOMORROW
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS AS SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
CAPROCK MAY INITIATE A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST COULD CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM
NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY RATHER QUICKLY AS AN UPPER HIGH
SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND FLATTENS OUT A BIT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TOMORROW AS THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING TO SUSTAIN SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE. THE PRIMARY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUE TO BE ON FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WAVE
IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE WAVE. LOW AND MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL BE PRESENT BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW LIMITING
FACTORS FOR SUSTAINING CONVECTION. SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE
EXTREMELY WEAK. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE EITHER.
HOWEVER...WITH THIS MUCH CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL RUNS...HAVE OPTED
TO GO CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A LACK OF FORCING
ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE EAST OF
A SURFACE TROUGH HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE FORECAST THEN BECOMES TROUBLESOME VERY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO DRIVE A
COLD FRONT NEAR THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE EURO CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS FEATURE ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER.
NEVERTHELESS...THE FRONT WILL THEN WASH OUT BY TUESDAY WITH A RETURN
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. JDV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  93  63  89  64 /  20  10  20  20  30
TULIA         65  94  66  90  65 /  20  10  20  10  30
PLAINVIEW     66  94  66  89  66 /  20  10  10  10  30
LEVELLAND     66  94  68  90  66 /  20  10  10  10  30
LUBBOCK       68  95  70  92  69 /  20  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   66  94  67  92  67 /  20  10  10  20  30
BROWNFIELD    67  94  69  91  67 /  20  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     68  97  70  95  72 /  20  10  10  10  20
SPUR          70  96  70  94  70 /  20  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     72  96  71  96  72 /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

13/99/99