Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
633 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

.AVIATION...
NW FLOW ALOFT TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FCST AREA FROM NRN
TX PANHANDLE AND NERN NM. GOOD PROBABILITY THAT BOTH TAF SITES
WILL BE AFFECTED BEFORE 06Z. SOME POSSIBILITY OF REDEVELOPMENT
LATER TONIGHT WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND HAVE KEPT A PROB30
MENTION TO COVER THAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO THE PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THE LATEST SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL 1 AM. NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009/

SHORT TERM...
BIG QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT REMAINS HOW
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AND AFFECT THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT. MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME FORM OF
STORMS DEVELOPING BUT ARE DIFFERENT IN WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE SCATTERED OR A MORE ORGANIZED MCS. CURRENT VIS SAT AND REGIONAL
RADAR COMPOSITE SHOW STORMS HAVE FIRED AND MOVED OFF THE SANGRES
INTO NE NM WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE CO/KS AND OK STATE LINES. ANVIL
BLOWOFF IS MOVING MORE TOWARDS THE EAST SOUTHEAST WHILE UPDRAFT
REGIONS ARE DRIFTING MORE DUE SOUTHEAST OR EVEN SOUTHWARD.
FOLLOWING THE NAM/GFS SOLN...ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. 00Z NSSL WRF HAD ACTIVITY
MOVING MORE DUE SOUTH. BARRING ANY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
AREA...HINTED AT IN THE LAST SEVERAL RUC RUNS...STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP INTO A MCS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY ROLL ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO A WIND THREAT SHOULD THE
MCS DEVELOP...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MCS COULD
PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND MICROBURST ACTIVITY.  CONTINUED A
GENERAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE GRIDS AND HWO FOR TONIGHT AND
ALSO LEFT POPS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT.  DID ADJUST
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING THINKING THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
OVER THE AREA FROM THE STRATIFORM RAIN REGION.  TEMPS WILL ALSO BE
AFFECTED BY THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP AND CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING BUT KEPT FCST PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING SO
FAR TODAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
TOMORROW NIGHT ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA...BOTH
THE VORT MAX AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA. BY 06Z THURSDAY A COLD FRONT IS EDGEING ITS
WAY INTO THE CWA. THE CURRENT MODELS HAVE FROPA IN LUBBOCK NEAR
9Z AND OUT OF THE CWA BY 12Z ALLOWING FOR SOME DAYTIME WARMING AND
DRYING. THE TSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY POST FRONTAL
ON THURSDAY...WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT IN NE
NEW MEXICO.

THURSDAY NIGHTS MCS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 SHORTWAVE/VORT
MAX WHICH IS PROGGED TO PUSH EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA...THE NAMS QPF SEEMS TO BE RUNNING A LITTLE HOT BUT THE
LOCATION SEEMS SOUND. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON UPSLOPE FLOW RETURNS
SETTING UP YET ANOTHER EVENING OF CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF NE NEW MEXICO...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE NE HALF OF THE AREA.

BY THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWRD...ALTHOUGH THERE
STILL NOT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE WILL BE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS LEADS TO THE PROBLEM OF PRECIP FOR THE
EARLY WEEK...SINCE THE EURO STILL HAS SOME NW FLOW ALOFT. HAVE
LEFT IN SILENT POPS FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THIS REASON.
ALSO THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER FRONT MOVE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
MODEL VARY GREATLY ON TIMING...MAINLY ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE RIDGE
PLACEMENT.

MEADOWS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  89  61  79  59 /  70  20  50  50  30
TULIA         64  89  65  79  60 /  70  20  50  50  30
PLAINVIEW     64  90  65  81  61 /  70  20  40  50  30
LEVELLAND     67  92  66  85  63 /  70  30  40  40  30
LUBBOCK       67  91  66  84  63 /  70  30  40  40  30
DENVER CITY   69  93  69  86  63 /  70  30  30  40  30
BROWNFIELD    68  92  68  85  66 /  70  30  40  40  30
CHILDRESS     69  92  67  83  68 /  60  30  50  50  30
SPUR          70  93  69  84  66 /  70  30  40  40  30
ASPERMONT     72  93  73  86  67 /  70  40  40  50  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

TXZ021>044-291030-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW OF THESE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND WINDS
THAT BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND COULD ORGANIZE INTO A
LARGER COMPLEX CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO
PUSH ACROSS AN UNUSUALLY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHTTIME HOURS AND A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
REPORTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...AND AREAS
THAT RECEIVE REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL COULD SEE EXCESSIVE STORM
RUNOFF.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA.

JORDAN