Severe Thunderstorm Warning 258, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
355 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

.SHORT TERM...
AT 3 PM...THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
HOWEVER A SECONDARY WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE FA
ROUGHLY FROM MORTON TO ASPERMONT...WHICH COINCIDED WITH A LINE OF
CU. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT PROBABLY
MOVES SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD. TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE SLOW TO RISE
TODAY DUE TO THE FRONT/CLOUDINESS...HAVE FINALLY REACHED UP INTO THE
LOWER 90S WHICH SHOULD ABOUT ELIMINATE THE CAP...BUT WEAK SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE EXITING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS/CENTRAL-EAST TEXAS
MAY TEND TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE A FEW LOCALLY STRONG STORMS IN OUR SW ZONES IF THE WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY PROVES SUFFICIENT FOR
INITIATION...BUT WEAK SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE SVR THREAT LOW.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN SRN CO/NRN NEW
MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE 4-CORNERS AREA. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE ALONG WITH
EASTERLY FLOW BELOW 700MB WILL KEEP BEST TSTM CHANCES MAINLY TO THE
WEST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...HENCE HAVE REDUCED POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME
STILL KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SW PANHANDLE.
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING...MOST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS THE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN/TSTMS TO REMAIN OUT NEAR THE TX/NM STATE
LINE...WITH SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR EAST THE ACTIVITY WILL
EXTEND. A LOT WILL DEPEND UPON THE PATH/DEGREE OF LIFT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
LOW-LVL WAA/DESTABILIZATION WITH 800-850MB HEIGHT RIDGE OVER THE
AREA.

THE FORECAST FOR WED AFTN...INCLUDING HIGH TEMPS...WILL DEPEND
GREATLY ON HOW MUCH ACTIVITY OCCURS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. IN
GENERAL...WE ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE EAST...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW AND A CHANCE OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPS COULD RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S OUT
WEST TO NEAR 90 IN THE EAST...DEPENDING OF COURSE ON THE ACTUAL CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
DIFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONT ACROSS
WEST TEXAS. COULD HAVE ONGOING MCS INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. ECMWF AND GFS VERY SIMILAR WITH
FORECAST PRECIPITATION WITH NAM A LITTLE DRIER BUT EVEN THAT
MODEL HINTS AT CONVECTION NORTH OF BOUNDARY.

DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD FRIDAY WITH A
RAPID WARMUP AS UPPER HIGH EXPANDS EASTWARD...AND N/NE FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. MAX TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS POSSIBLE
OFF THE CAPROCK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTH
INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS TROUGH DEEPENS SOUTH OF IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. SUNDAY COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH
FRONT AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  81  60  90  66 /  50  50  30  20  20
TULIA         64  80  60  89  64 /  40  40  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     63  80  62  88  66 /  40  40  30  20  20
LEVELLAND     63  81  63  88  67 /  50  50  40  20  20
LUBBOCK       66  81  66  89  68 /  40  50  40  20  10
DENVER CITY   65  82  64  88  66 /  50  50  50  20  20
BROWNFIELD    64  81  64  88  66 /  40  50  50  20  10
CHILDRESS     69  86  67  92  68 /  20  30  20  10  10
SPUR          64  84  67  90  69 /  30  40  40  20  10
ASPERMONT     69  87  69  90  69 /  20  40  40  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

33/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
442 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

TXZ021>044-220945-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
442 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION. A RELATIVELY LOW POSSIBILITY
OF HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS ACTIVITY.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NEW
MEXICO MOUNTAINS...AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL ADDITIONALLY HAVE SOME
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ON WEDNESDAY...A STORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
GIVEN THE LIMITED NATURE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
354 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

TXZ041-212130-
LYNN TX-
354 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS LYNN COUNTY...

AT 353 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTH OF TAHOKA...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.
BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

LAT...LON 3301 10192 3339 10206 3338 10174 3323 10161
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 072DEG 8KT 3331 10176

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