Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
322 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRODUCTS TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009/

SHORT TERM...
STILL FOCUSED ON SEVERE STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WTM SOUNDING /PERSONAL COMMUNICATION/ AND LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
PAGE SHOW CIN HAS GREATLY WEAKENED AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN CU
BUBBLING UP TO THE EAST OF LUBBOCK. SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO PIVOT
AND SHIFT WESTWARD AROUND 10 KTS AND WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM A
KRESS TO FLOYDADA TO LAKE ALAN HENRY LINE. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY IN PLACE /ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BOUNDARY/ AND
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING APPROACHED...STILL EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE BEST TORNADO THREAT
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR AND TO THE MOIST SIDE OF THE FRONT WHERE
INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND LCLS AND LFCS
MINIMIZED. ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEGUN
TO MIX OUT...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WERE STILL PERSISTING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...AND WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
THROUGH THE MID/UPPER 90S...COULD ALSO SEE HIGH-BASED STORMS DEVELOP
HERE.

STORMS COULD ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
INTO A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ. STILL...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT AN OVERNIGHT STORM ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES BY TO THE NORTHWEST. STORM CHANCES WILL
REINVIGORATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE TIGHTENS AND ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PROGGED
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL AGAIN SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD...WITH ANOTHER TOASTY DAY EXPECT SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
STILL APPEARS THAT SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE POTENTIAL DRYLINE
CONVECTION DAYS WHILE TUESDAY AND BEYOND WILL FEEL THE EFFECTS OF
AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
FCST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO 100-105 RANGE. SUNDAY NIGHT
CONVECTION APPEARS MORE LIKELY A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN CURRENT
FCST AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO SHOW THIS. MONDAY POPS LOOK FINE
AND HAVE LEFT UNCHANGED AND HAVE DROPPED INHERITED SLIGHT CHC POPS
DOWN INTO UNMENTIONABLE RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  86  60  94  62 /  20  30  20  20  20
TULIA         64  90  66  94  64 /  30  30  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     65  90  67  96  65 /  30  30  30  20  20
LEVELLAND     67  93  65  97  66 /  20  30  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       68  93  68  97  68 /  30  30  30  20  20
DENVER CITY   69  96  65  98  67 /  20  30  30  20  20
BROWNFIELD    69  95  68  98  67 /  20  30  30  20  20
CHILDRESS     70  93  70  97  70 /  50  30  30  20  20
SPUR          69  96  71  98  70 /  40  30  30  20  20
ASPERMONT     73 100  74 101  73 /  50  20  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1132 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

TXZ021>044-141645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1132 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...NORTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. AMPLE MOISTURE AND VERY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE
DRYLINE.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS EVENING...WHEN THE
FRONT MAY BE DRIVEN SOUTHWEST DUE TO THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS.
DUE TO A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH. A FEW
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE...NORTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MORE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
431 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     HAIL             QUITAQUE                34.37N 101.06W
06/13/2009  E2.75 INCH       BRISCOE            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            BASEBALL SIZED HAIL COMBINED WITH WINDS TO KNOCK OUT
            MANY WINDOWS. LOTS OF GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL. LARGE HAIL
            ENDED AROUND 418 PM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00550

GS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
447 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

TXZ022-023-132230-
CASTRO TX-SWISHER TX-
447 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SWISHER AND CASTRO COUNTIES...

AT 446 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HAPPY...OR ABOUT 15 MILES
EAST OF DIMMITT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LAT...LON 3476 10156 3450 10149 3440 10213 3475 10220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 242DEG 28KT 3459 10204

JDV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
453 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     HAIL             12 W GUTHRIE            33.63N 100.53W
06/13/2009  E1.00 INCH       DICKENS            TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00551

GS

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