Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
333 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...
AT 230 PM...WEST TEXAS MESONET OBS SHOWED THAT THE COLD FRONT HAD MADE
IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA ASIDE FROM YOAKUM COUNTY...WHILE RECENT
RADAR IMAGERY IS INDICATING THE FRONT/DRYLINE IS BEGINNING TO MIX
BACK TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SW SPLNS. THE FRONT REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY FROM ABOUT POST TO ASPERMONT AND VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS TCU ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM GARZA INTO KENT COUNTY. THIS IS
THE PREFERRED LOCATION FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHERE CONTINUED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/LIFT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP...WITH THE 19Z RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING
SOME CINH STILL TO BE OVERCOME. CAPES GREATER THAN 2K J/KG AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KTS...AUGMENTED BY INCREASED LOW-LVL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT ARGUES FOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES AND ATTENDANT SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT GIVEN BASE HEIGHTS
AROUND 9K FT OR SO. HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE AS WARM MID-LVL
TEMPS SHOULD KEEP THE ACTIVITY ISOLD AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY. THE
TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY ORGANIZE INTO AN
MCS WITH 30-40 SSW LLJ MAINTAINING WARM/MOIST INFLOW...BUT THIS MOST
LIKELY WILL BE JUST TO THE SE OF THE FA.

ON TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL HAVE COMPLETELY DISSOLVED...REPLACED BY
DEEP SW FLOW AND A DEVELOPING DRYLINE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT
THAT SUBSTANTIAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE ENTRAINED IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WEST TEXAS LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH-LVL
CLOUDINESS. ALSO...THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT OVER WTX IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
DESERT SW. THUS WE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE THE CHC OF AFTN TSTMS
ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL FORM FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN/TRANS-PECOS...THEN MOVE/EXPAND TO THE NE
LATE IN THE AFTN/EVE. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
REDUCED FROM TODAY BUT WILL BE LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED SVR THREAT FROM ANY TSTM ACTIVITY. WARMER TEMPS SHOULD BE
IN STORE FOR MOST LOCALES TUE WITH SOME TEMPERING EXPECTED FROM THE
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT GOOD HARMONY WITH THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER TROUGHING
REMAINING QUITE PERSISTENT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW ACROSS WEST TX SHOULD ADVECT A FEW IMPULSES OUR WAY
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY BEFORE HEIGHT FIELDS GRADUALLY RISE LATE WEEK
NORTH OF A CLOSED SUBTROPICAL HIGH. NET RESULT WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ACTIVE DRYLINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...MAINLY WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE.
INHERITED POPS WERE LEFT LARGELY INTACT WED AND WED NIGHT OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPING HEREAFTER IN
REGARD TO AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT. REGARDLESS...AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL OVER THE CWA THUR AND POSSIBLY
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO COOL SIGNIFICANTLY...GFS DOES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR A SHARPER BAROCLINIC ZONE POSSIBLY RECEIVING ENHANCEMENT FROM
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FARTHER NORTH. WON/T DRAW INTO THIS SOLUTION
JUST YET AS THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  90  60  88  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         59  90  63  87  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     60  90  65  88  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     62  91  64  92  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       64  92  67  93  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   64  95  64  94  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    64  95  65  94  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     66  94  70  92  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
SPUR          66  94  68  93  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     69  95  72  94  69 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

33/93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1235 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2009

TXZ021>044-091745-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1235 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM MATADOR TO POST. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL BE LOCATED
ALONG THE CAPROCK ESCARPEMENT...AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRONT
THAT MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS THIS MORNING.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND THE ROLLING PLAINS THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JAMES

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