Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2009

.AVIATION...
TSTM CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE AVIATION FCST FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THIS EVENING...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE CDS AREA
WHILE THE THREAT TO LUBBOCK IS MORE UNCERTAIN. WILL LEAVE A CB
MENTION IN THE KLBB TAF FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS BELOW 50 PERCENT.
THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS /MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXPANDING BACK INTO THE
LUBBOCK AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING...BUT KEPT THE
COVERAGE SCATTERED FOR NOW. SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED UNTIL MIDDAY
TUE WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TSTM
CHANCES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KCDS AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2009/

SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT SOMEWHAT STRENUOUSLY ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DRY-LINE AND IN ADVANCE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND
MAXIMUM ROTATING IN FROM NEW MEXICO LOW. ALL OF THIS REASONABLY WELL
EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST WRF/NAM AND RUC MODEL RUNS...THOUGH
UPDATES HAVE EDGED AREA OF STORMS FURTHER WEST AS WE ARE NOW SEEING
FROM OUR VARIOUS VIEWS. PREVIOUS UPDATED WORDING TOWARDS MORE OF A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN
FURTHER EXTENDED INTO HEIGHTENED WORDING IN THE GRIDS. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...THREATS TONIGHT ARE WITH HIGH BASED STORMS PER INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...AT LEAST LOW END SHEAR AND
CAPES SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL...AND ADDITION OF HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT THAT MAY SUPPORT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN OVER ROLLING
PLAINS. STORMS SHOULD EASE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...
EDGING MORE TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AS STORMS
DIMINISH...OUTFLOWS MAY ENHANCE A LOW CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING ON THE
CAP-ROCK LATER TONIGHT.

TUESDAY OFFERS A BIT MORE SHEAR AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. AREA MAY BE LARGELY OUTFLOWED-OUT AND
COOL IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER LATER IN THE DAY
FOR AN INCREASED RISK FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS. LATE NIGHT
OUTFLOW AND UPSLOPE COMPONENTS WILL MAKE FOR A DICEY TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PLOWS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE BETTER MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LLJ. HOWEVER...JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION COULD
SEE A STORM...AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIPS
SOUTHWARD AND IT APPEARS CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MUCH OR ALL
OF THE EXTENDED. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE CA COAST WILL
EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...EDGING
ASHORE SOMEWHERE TOWARD FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW...AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AND SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
INITIALLY...THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS SMALL CONCERN THAT CONVECTION INITIATING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NM COULD SNEAK INTO THE NW ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT
CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE TO STORM MAINTENANCE
INTO WEST TEXAS. RAIN CHANCE WILL FURTHER BE SQUASHED AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB. THIS UPPER RIDGE SHOULD
THEN BREAKDOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETURNING TO THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR CA FRIDAY OPENS AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY VEERED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE GENERALLY
SHUNTED TO THE EASTERN ZONES OR INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE DISTURBANCE WORKS BY TO THE NORTH A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL QUICKLY JUMP WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH
HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT A COLD FRONT SLIPS IN FROM THE
NORTH. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 30C FROM FRIDAY-SUNDAY SUGGEST
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S...WITH SOME LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS NOT OUT OF
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1137 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2009

TXZ021>044-021645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1137 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. THE STORMS WILL
ENCOUNTER INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS THEY WORK EAST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WHILE WIND FIELDS ALOFT
REMAIN MODESTLY STRONG...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
AS THEY FORM INTO CLUSTERS AND EVENTUALLY A SQUALL LINE AND
MOVE INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
STORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THESE THREATS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS AS THE LINE OF STORMS SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE EXTENDING ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CAPROCK INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. EXPANSION OF THUNDERSTORMS
WESTWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING
TUESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF SEVER WEATHER EXTENDING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
941 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NNE CHILDRESS         34.45N 100.23W
06/01/2009  M58 MPH          CHILDRESS          TX   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00493

FB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
947 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2009

TXZ030-036-020315-
FLOYD TX-CROSBY TX-
947 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS CROSBY AND FLOYD COUNTIES...

AT 943 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST OF FLOYDADA TO NEAR
CONE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.
BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

LAT...LON 3380 10104 3379 10105 3377 10141 3399 10152
      3411 10119
TIME...MOT...LOC 0245Z 273DEG 11KT 3387 10135