Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Lubbock, TX

000 
WWUS84 KLUB 202138
RFWLUB

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
338 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2009

TXZ021>032-036>038-042>044-210000-
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-090221T0000Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
338 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LESS THAN 15 PERCENT...SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20 MPH OR GREATER AT THE 20 FOOT LEVEL AND A HIGH FIRE
DANGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...ROLLING PLAINS AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AT THE 20 FOOT LEVEL ARE
RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BELOW 15 PERCENT WILL PROMOTE EXTREME WILDFIRE BEHAVIOR. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

000 
WWUS84 KLUB 210007
RFWLUB

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
607 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2009

TXZ021>032-036>038-042>044-210115-
/O.EXP.KLUB.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-090221T0000Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
607 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY DRY AND MAY
NOT RECOVER ABOVE 20 PERCENT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS HAVE
DECREASED WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG
WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2009

.SHORT TERM...
SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INDUCES A SFC LEE
TROUGH. THE SFC TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS...THUS CAUSING THE WINDS TO INCREASE TO
WINDY CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FILTER IN DRYER CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE TOWARDS THE
AREA AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE INTRUDES INTO THE REGION. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD ONCE
AGAIN REACH RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NWLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN FLOW BACKS
TOWARD THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY WSW AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. THIS SPELLS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIOD BEGINS WITH COOL AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN THE
WAKE OF A RATHER STRONG FRONT. PROGGED THICKNESSES SUPPORT TEMPS A
BIT WARMER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY WHILE 850 MB TEMPS SUGGEST
COOLER. TREND SEEMS TO BE UPWARD FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
TO BE HIGHS IN THE 40S. WILL BUMP TEMPS UP A BIT MORE WITH 40S NOW
FCST ONLY FOR NWRN ZONES AND 50S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
AREA.

WARMING TREND THEN EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL FROM THE S/SW AND AT
TIMES FROM THE WEST INTO THURSDAY. PROGGED LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND INCREASING HEIGHTS SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE 70S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING
A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE ECMWF FASTER
THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH THE GFS WHICH WILL POINT TO
70S AGAIN FOR HIGHS THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH SINGLE
DIGIT RH VALUES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS...FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE HIGH. THUS HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING. SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS EXEMPT DUE
TO EXPECTATION OF LOWER WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  24  48  24  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         67  26  52  24  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     68  27  53  26  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     71  28  53  26  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  30  54  27  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   71  30  54  28  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    71  31  55  27  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     71  31  54  28  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          72  31  55  27  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73  37  56  26  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>032-036>038-042>044.

&&

29/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
342 PM CST THU FEB 19 2009

TXZ021>044-202145-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
342 PM CST THU FEB 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ALL OF
THE REGION ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF DRY
GRASSES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND
30 MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.