Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Lubbock, TX

000 
WWUS84 KLUB 182148
RFWLUB

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
348 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

TXZ021-022-027>030-033>037-039>044-182300-
/O.CAN.KLUB.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-090218T2300Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-FLOYD-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-
CROSBY-DICKENS-YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
348 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

EXTREMELY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOWEVER WINDS AT THE 20 FOOT LEVEL
HAVE DROPPED BELOW 20 MPH.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
407 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER FLOW FROM A WNW DIRECTION WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE 4-CORNERS EWD ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER.
MODERATELY TIGHT MID LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING COMBINED
WITH MODESTLY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO BREEZY
WNW WINDS FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME NERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. SLIGHT
LOWER HEIGHTS AND SOME LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION POINT TO HIGHS ABOUT
8 TO 14 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DESPITE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
TODAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS LATE THIS AFTN AND A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LIGHTER N/NE WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT GENERALLY CLOSE AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED PATTERN IS STILL SHAPING UP VOID OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES
THANKS TO A DRY NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A FAST
ZONAL FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL THE WHILE ANY IMPULSES OF
CONSEQUENCE TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THIS...CONCERN ONCE
WILL AGAIN WILL REVOLVE AROUND PERIODIC THREATS OF CRITICAL FIRE WX
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

COOL SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE PUSHED A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH MODELS HAVING TRENDED POST-FRONTAL
850MB TEMPS A BIT WARMER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. FAST NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THIS SURFACE RIDGE PROGRESSIVE AND BY FRIDAY A
RATHER VIGOROUS S/W TROF IS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS AND IN THE PROCESS GENERATE LEE SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CO. L/L GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE WILL RESPOND
ACCORDINGLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT LATEST WIND SPEEDS ARE
LOOKING TO FALL SHORT OF ATTAINING CRITICAL FIRE WX THRESHOLDS
DESPITE VERY DRY SW WINDS. SAID IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A MORE ROBUST
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH THE EARLIER FROPA TIMING
FROM THE GFS LOOKING MOST REPRESENTATIVE CONSIDERING THE DRY PRE-
FRONTAL AIRMASS AND VERY MERIDIONAL/STOUT POLAR HIGH STRUCTURE
THROUGHOUT THE GREAT PLAINS. HIGHS CONSEQUENTLY ON SAT WERE
LOWERED INTO THE COOLER REALM OF THE MOS ENSEMBLES.

WITH THE STRONGER SURFACE HIGH NOW ADVERTISED TO PLUNGE INTO THE
GULF ON SUNDAY...ANY HOPES FOR A RETURN OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
NOW LOOK SQUASHED AHEAD OF A DECAYING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE
INCREASINGLY FAST AND ZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE CONUS SHOULD
DEVELOP ANOTHER LEE SIDE LOW IN SOUTHEAST CO BY SUNDAY HELPING TO
BOOST FIRE CONCERNS INTO MONDAY. GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF IN BREAKING THE UPPER RIDGING DOWN
BY MONDAY...BUT ALL DO AGREE IN FOCUSING A BELT OF 35 KT WINDS AT
850MB OVER THE AREA. BEYOND THIS THE POLAR VORTEX LOOKS TO BROADEN
OVER MUCH OF LOWER CANADA KEEPING A LACKLUSTER ZONAL FLOW INTACT
OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPS RESIDING A BIT OF ABOVE NORMAL THRU
MIDWEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES NEAR 10 PCT EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN FOR ALL OF THE
FCST AREA. BREEZY WNW WINDS SHOULD PUSH AND MAY AT TIMES BARELY
EXCEED 20 MPH AT THE 20-FOOT LEVEL. LOOKING LIKE A MARGINAL FIRE WX
DAY BUT ONE THAT PROBABLY WARRANTS A WARNING. HAVE RECONFIGURED
INHERITED FIRE WX WATCH SLIGHTLY GIVEN FCST WINDS AND RH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  22  55  19  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         60  24  55  22  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     61  25  55  23  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     63  25  59  25  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       64  27  57  28  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   64  28  59  30  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    66  27  59  31  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     67  28  59  30  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          66  28  57  29  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     71  30  59  31  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021-022-027>030-033>037-039>044.

&&

07/93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
724 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2009

TXZ021>044-190130-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
724 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.