Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Lubbock, TX

000 
WWUS84 KLUB 062151
RFWLUB

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
351 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2009


TXZ021>024-027>029-033-034-062300-
/O.CAN.KLUB.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-090207T0000Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-
351 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

SURFACE WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED TO BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA THUS
REDUCING THE FIRE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
445 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2009

.SHORT TERM...
NEXT 24-HOURS WILL BE DOMINATED BY VERY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY...BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND IMPROVED MOISTURE
LEVELS FOR SOME AREAS.

THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES FROM NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS AT 12Z TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
RIDGE AND THE PASSING WAVE WILL INDUCE A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
FROM EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM TODAY. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS /SUSTAINED AT 20-30 MPH/
TODAY...WITH THE TROUGH TRANSLATING EAST INTO THE CENTER OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL VEER THE WINDS ON THE CAPROCK
TO THE SW/WSW...WITH SSW WINDS FURTHER EAST.  THUS...THE DECENT
SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN THIS MORNING /WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S OVER ALL BUT THE SW TX PANHANDLE AT 09Z/ WILL BE SHUNTED
TO NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH
850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO WARM A COUPLE DEGREES OVER
YESTERDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS...WITH UPPER
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OF NOTE...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 79
DEGREES AT LUBBOCK AND 82 DEGREES AT CHILDRESS...BOTH SET IN 1950.
THE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA /SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS/.

BEFORE THE DRY AIR INVADES FROM THE WEST...WE COULD YET SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS WHERE THE IMPROVED MOISTURE MOVES INTO AN AREA THAT
HAS ALREADY SEEN TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S/UPPER 30S. IF
ANY FOG DOES FORM NEAR DAYBREAK IT SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF.

SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL AGAIN RETURN TO ALL BUT PERHAPS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL HELP TO
MODERATE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE
THEY COULD DROP INTO THE LOW 30S...WITH 40S GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. ALSO...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE SHALLOW MOISTURE INFESTED AIR TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
DETAILS WITH TIMING OF THE STORM SYSTEM/FORCING STILL NEED TO BE
HASHED OUT.

BY SATURDAY...UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF AT H5 OVER SRN CALIFORNIA
TEMPORARILY PUMPING UP THE SHTWV RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER WEST TEXAS.
WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH INCREASING HIGH-LVL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC
MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. LOW-LVL WINDS WILL BACK AND
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT WHETHER
NOT LOW STRATUS DECK WILL MOVE IN BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT
SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION UPSLOPE. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
VIGOROUS LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AHEAD OF
THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SW DURING THE DAY. REGARDING
THE TIMING ISSUE...THE GFS HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING
THAN MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...BREAKING OUT QPF ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES BEFORE 0Z AND MOVING IT QUICKLY INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS
BY 6Z...ABOUT 3-6 HRS QUICKER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. THIS FCST WILL FAVOR
THE SLOWER ECMWF/NAM...AS THE GFS HAS PERFORMED POORLY WITH TROUGH
PROGRESSIONS THIS WINTER. THUS...WHILE WE STILL MAY SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
SAT...BELIEVE THE MAIN ACTION WILL ARRIVE AFTER 0Z SUNDAY EVENING.
GUIDANCE IS NEARLY UNANIMOUS IN IT/S DEPICTION OF A WELL-DEFINED
SQUALL- LINE DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NM AND TRANS-PECOS...THEN
MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT. GIVEN
THE STRONG DYNAMICS BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY /SREF MEAN SHOWS
ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AVAILABLE ACROSS THE AREA/. THIS DOES
APPEAR TO BE QUITE PLAUSIBLE. IT ALSO DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF
STORMS...ESPECIALLY THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO THE
EXPECTED FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE SQUALL LINE AND STRONG SPEED
SHEAR. ALSO...GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW LCLS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO BECOME ROOTED TO THE SFC...ENHANCED BACKING OF THE
LOW-LVL WIND FIELD MIGHT SUPPORT SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH A GREATER SEVERE THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
UP TO NEAR AN INCH SHOULD RESULT IN GENEROUS RAINFALL
RATES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

EXPECTING THE SQUALL LINE TO BE EXITING THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH BREEZY AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE OUT OF THE
GREAT BASIN AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE
NO OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN FOR THIS SYSTEM BUT IT
DOES APPEAR TO HAVE SOME PUNCH TO IT AS IT MOVES OUT OF NEW MEXICO
INTO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY WED. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
GFS...PUTTING THE UPPER LOW NEAR CHILDRESS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
APPEARS MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY-SLOTTING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS BUT WE MAY SEE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS. HAVE HELD OFF UPPING
PRECIP CHANCES IN THIS AREA FOR NOW BUT THEY MAY BE ADDED LATER.
LATE NEXT WEEK...A THIRD SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE EARLY MORNING INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL NOT LAST LONG ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AS WINDS WILL
BECOME SW/WSW AND THIS WILL PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE TO NEAR THE
CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS...WITH RH VALUES FORECAST TO DROP TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS FROM THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE ABOVE FACTORS...COMBINED WITH
DORMANT VEGETATION /AND A DEVELOPING DROUGHT/...VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
FIRE DANGER AND 20 FT WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WILL RESULT IN RED FLAG
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOUR OVER THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-
CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS TODAY.
WINDS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL ALSO BE IN THE 20-25 MPH
RANGE...BUT RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AGAIN
RETURNS TO ALL BUT PERHAPS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  31  71  40  56 /   0   0   0  10  30
TULIA         78  35  72  44  57 /   0   0   0   0  20
PLAINVIEW     77  39  73  46  58 /   0   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     78  40  73  45  60 /   0   0   0   0  20
LUBBOCK       77  43  73  48  60 /   0   0   0   0  20
DENVER CITY   76  41  73  46  63 /   0   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    76  42  73  47  61 /   0   0   0   0  20
CHILDRESS     79  46  74  50  61 /   0   0   0  10  30
SPUR          77  45  73  49  62 /   0   0   0  10  30
ASPERMONT     78  47  74  52  65 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>029-033-034.

&&

23/33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
614 PM CST THU FEB 5 2009

TXZ021>044-061200-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
614 PM CST THU FEB 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM 11 AM UNTIL 6 PM
FRIDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION PROMOTING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS SUNDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.