Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
214 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

.SHORT TERM...
STORM INITIATION HAS COMMENCED ALONG THE DRYLINE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE FROM EAST OF NAZARETH...TO COTTON CENTER TO EAST OF PLAINS AS
OF 19Z. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DRYLINE
APPEAR TO BE STRONG PER THE RADAR. CU CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE LINE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY DRAWS
NEAR THE REGION /NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION/ AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE OFF THE CAPROCK...IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THE FAVORED AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
JUST WEST OF THE CAPROCK AND THEN EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXTENT OF THE EASTWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE DRYLINE...DUE TO THE UPPER LOW INDUCING HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH CAN SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE
ENEWD ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THE
BETTER MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES AND LIFTED INDICES GETS SHIFTED EAST
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA
ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE MODELS HINT AT THE MAIN CAA SWEEPING SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THUS...SINCE THE AIR BEHIND THE MAIN
PUSH IS ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER...HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE
AT/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

THEREAFTER...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM TRANSLATES TO THE NORTHEAST...DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS COMMENCES. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDING AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE REGION...SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO FLATTEN A BIT DUE TO THE NEXT INCOMING PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  63  35  63  41 /  40  20  20  10  10
TULIA         42  65  36  66  43 /  50  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     43  65  37  67  44 /  50  20  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     43  68  39  72  44 /  40  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       47  70  41  73  46 /  50  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   42  70  37  74  43 /  40  10   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    44  70  39  73  44 /  50  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     52  71  46  72  48 /  80  30  20  10  10
SPUR          49  71  44  75  48 /  70  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     53  73  46  77  49 /  80  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1126 AM CDT THU APR 16 2009

TXZ021>044-171630-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1126 AM CDT THU APR 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE THAT WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH A SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING
LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE STATE LINE AND THEN PUSHING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND AREAWIDE LATER TONIGHT.

JORDAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
923 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0921 PM     TORNADO          10 N SHALLOWATER        33.83N 101.99W
04/16/2009                   HALE               TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OR APPROX 4S OF THE COMMUNITY OF COUNTY LINE

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00392

02

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
940 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

TXZ035-170315-
LUBBOCK TX-
940 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS LUBBOCK COUNTY...

AT 939 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF WOODROW...OR ABOUT 14 MILES
WEST OF SLATON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1011 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 WNW ABERNATHY         33.88N 101.98W
04/16/2009                   HALE               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DAMAGE TO TREES AND RADIO TOWER NE OF INTERSECTION OF
            FM2528 AND FM54

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00393

02

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1014 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1007 PM     TORNADO          9 W GIRARD              33.36N 100.82W
04/16/2009                   KENT               TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00394

02

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1017 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     HAIL             3 NE RANSOM CANYON      33.56N 101.65W
04/16/2009  M0.88 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   SKYWARN SPOTTER

            AT INTERSECTION OF FM400 AND FM40

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00395

02

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1024 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     TORNADO          4 S IDALOU              33.60N 101.68W
04/16/2009                   LUBBOCK            TX   SKYWARN SPOTTER

            UTILITY POWER FLASHES WERE OBSERVED IN VICINITY OF
            TORNADO

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00396

02