Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 270215
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
815 PM CST THU FEB 26 2009

MOC055-270230-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-090227T0230Z/
CRAWFORD MO-
814 PM CST THU FEB 26 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CST
FOR SOUTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY...

AT 810 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR STEELVILLE...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.  HAIL 
CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
CHERRYVILLE AND DAVISVILLE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

LAT...LON 3770 9132 3778 9132 3787 9151 3801 9148
      3808 9111 3774 9111 3774 9116 3770 9116
TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 281DEG 35KT 3793 9134

$$

MILLER

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 270227
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
827 PM CST THU FEB 26 2009

MOC055-270237-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-090227T0230Z/
CRAWFORD MO-
827 PM CST THU FEB 26 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3770 9132 3778 9132 3787 9151 3801 9148
      3808 9111 3774 9111 3774 9116 3770 9116
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 281DEG 35KT 3790 9119

$$

MILLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
506 PM CST THU FEB 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/322 PM CST THU FEB 26 2009/
SFC LOW ACRS WRN MO CONTS TO DEEPEN WITH CVNTN ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF
THE SFC LOW AND ASSOC CDFNT. SFC BASED CAP IS EXP TO WEAKEN AND
ALLOW SFC STORMS TO INITIATE IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. SBCAPE IS SOMEWHAT
LACKING...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHUD MORE THAN MAKE UP FOR IT.

MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING FROM SGF SHOWS AROUND 1400 J/KG MLCAPE WITH
LITTLE CIN. WV IMAGE SHOWS DRY AIR INTRUSION OVR THE TOP OF THE SFC
LOW WHICH WL HELP ERODE THE CAP IN PLACE. 21Z SOUNDING FROM SGF IS
BEGINNING TO COME IN DEPICTING STG INVERSION IN PLACE JUST BLW 750H.
THIS WUD LIMIT CNVTN FURTHER S.

STG FORCING ALONG THE CDFNT WL LIKELY CAUSE ANY DISCRETE CELLS TO
FORM INTO A LINE AS IT MOVES EWD TNGT. EXP PRECIP TO BE ON THE ERN
EDGE OF THE CWA BY 06Z TNGT. HAVE KEPT SOME CHC POPS FOR THE SERN
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER TIMING.

AFTER TNGT...FOCUS TURNS TO PRECIP CHCS ON TMW NGT THRU SAT. UPA
TROF CURRENTLY OVR SERN WASHINGTON STATE WL APCH THE REGION AND DROP
SE ACRS ERN KS AND WRN MO ON SAT. THIS TRACK WL PLACE THE HEAVIEST
SN ALONG THE MISS RVR AND W INTO CNTRL MO. ATTM...EXPNG LGT ACCUM IN
THE 1 TO 3 IN RANGE. SN MAY LINGER INTO SAT EVE ACRS SERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. NAM IS ABOUT 6 HRS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER. NAM
DEPICTS TROWAL DEVELOPING ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHICH WUD
ALLOW SN TO BE HEAVIER THAN FCST. SINCE THE NAM IS SOMEWHAT AN
OUTLIER ATTM...HAVE ONLY SILENT 20S GOING.

FOR THE EXTD...MDLS START OUT IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGMNT. 12Z/26
GFS/CMC AND 00Z/26 ECMWF HAVE SFC RIDGE EXTDNG S OVR THE CWA SUN
NGT. WITH EXP SN FIELD...HAVE GONE BLW GUIDANCE AS WINDS SHUD BE LGT
AND CLR SKIES.

BEYOND MON...MDLS BEGIN TO DIFFER. GFS HAS SFC RIDGE RETREATING
FASTER THAN ECMWF/CMC. HAVE TRENDED TWD THE SLOWER SOLNS AND KEPT
TEMPS A LITTLE LWR. FOCUS TURNS TO PRECIP CHCS ON WED NGT AND THURS.
HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF PRECIP DUE TO MDLS
DIFFS. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF/CMC ARE SUGGESTING PRECIP POSS ON THURS
AND POSS AS EARLY AS WED NGT. HAVE THEREFORE ONLY LOW POPS ON THURS
AND WL SEE WHAT MDLS DO WITH THIS SYS.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION...
/505 PM CST THU FEB 26 2009/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS ERN
MO/CNTRL AND SRN IL THIS EVENING. LINE OF TSRA ALONG THE FRONT
WILL POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME WIND GUSTS TO 35KTS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL
AT THE TAF SITES. TSRA OUGHT TO CLEAR OUT OF KUIN/KCOU BY
01Z...AND AFFECT KSTL/KSUS BETWEEN 02-04Z. WINDS WILL TURN NWLY
AND INCREASE WITH WINDS GUSTS TO 25-27KTS BEHIND IT WITH CEILINGS
IN THE 008-015 RANGE MOST OF THE NIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY GO
VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS VEERING NLY AND
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
327 PM CST THU FEB 26 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-271200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
327 PM CST THU FEB 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING COULD BE SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SNOW IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TILLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
619 PM CST THU FEB 26 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     HAIL             8 E COLUMBIA            38.95N  92.18W
02/26/2009  E0.25 INCH       BOONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEAR MILE MARKER 135 ON INTERSTATE 70

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0901521

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
632 PM CST THU FEB 26 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             5 W KINGDOM CITY        38.95N  92.03W
02/26/2009  E0.25 INCH       CALLAWAY           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0901522

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
636 PM CST THU FEB 26 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             COLUMBIA                38.95N  92.33W
02/26/2009  M1.00 INCH       BOONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT OLD HIGHWAY 63 AND STADIUM BLVD...SPOTTER STATED
            WINDSHIELD ON CAR WAS CRACKED FROM HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0901523

KARLZ