Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 232351 RRA
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
651 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2009

MOC113-183-189-240002-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0187.000000T0000Z-090724T0015Z/
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. CHARLES MO-LINCOLN MO-
651 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN...CENTRAL
ST. CHARLES AND ST. LOUIS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER
APPEARED TO BE SEVERE...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3858 9041 3846 9073 3850 9075 3863 9074
      3858 9078 3891 9091 3904 9071 3895 9068
      3888 9063 3887 9056 3890 9052 3872 9027
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 318DEG 26KT 3870 9053

$$

CARNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
557 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/309 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2009/
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SFC LOW NOTED OVER NRN MO AND SRN IA
THIS AFTN WITH AREA OF CONVERGENCE STRETCHING SE TOWARDS STL AND
MOISTURE POOLING IN NRN MO. WITH LOW DRIFTING SE AND 1000-2000 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW -TSRA
DEVELOP FROM THE CU FIELD SO INCLUDED ISOLATED MENTION FOR EARLY
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE. SFC RIDGE SHIFTS E
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING SW BY FRI AFTN AND INCREASING AHEAD OF
APCHG CDFNT. FRI LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PD WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA /PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WILL CONTINUE DIVING SE...EVENTUALLY DRAGGING
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF FROPA. ALTHOUGH 0Z AND 12Z ECMWF/6Z
AND 12Z GFS/6Z NAM/9Z SREF ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON WHEN CDFNT
APCHGS MO/IA BORDER...DISAGREEMENTS REMAIN OVER HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES
THROUGH WITH THE SREF SUGGESTING CDFNT WILL STALL ALONG THE MO/AR
BORDER. PRECIP CHCS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUN IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN FNTL MOVEMENT.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN WRN CONUS RIDGE
AND ERN CONUS TROF. EXPECTING COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY BEHIND
CDFNT WITH A BRIEF WARM UP ON TUE BEFORE NEXT CDFNT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION ON TUE/WED. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
THU/FRI BUT HELD OFF ON ADDING POPS UNTIL PERIODICITY OF SHORTWAVE
PASSAGES IN THIS FLOW REGIME BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION...
/522 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2009/

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SCT TSRA HAVE DVLPD ALONG A WK NW-SE SFC TROF
ACRS NERN MO AND E CNTRL MO. WHILE THESE TSRA HAVE REMAINED BTWN
UIN AND COU...THEY SHOULD MOVE THRU OR VERY NR STL/SUS EARLY THIS
EVNG. WILL LIKELY NEED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GRP OF TSRA BTWN 00Z TO
01Z OR 02Z THIS EVNG IN STL AND SUS. AFTER 02Z FRI MOST OF THIS
TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD EITHER DISSIPATE OR MOVE SE OF THE STL METRO
AREA. ONCE THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS CLR OUT LTR THIS EVNG
THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. WITH A MOSTLY CLR
SKY AND LGT SFC WND LT TGT FOG SHOULD DVLP PARTICULARLY AT TAF
SITES WHICH RECEIVED RECENT RAINFALL LIKE SUS. FEW-SCT DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DVLP DURING THE LT MRNG AND AFTN ON FRI. SFC
WNDS WILL BE SWLY ON FRI AHD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT WHICH WILL
MOVE SEWD INTO THE CWA LT FRI NGT. SHRA/TSRA WITH THIS FNT SHOULD
HOLD OFF TIL AFTER 00Z SAT IN UIN.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
316 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-241145-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
316 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

KANOFSKY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
529 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             3 NW SILEX              39.16N  91.10W
07/23/2009  M1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND TREE LIMBS DOWN

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW SILEX              39.16N  91.10W
07/23/2009                   LINCOLN            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0900033
EVENT NUMBER LSX0900034

GKS