Severe Thunderstorm Warning 158, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 200105
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
805 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

ILC121-200114-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0158.000000T0000Z-090620T0115Z/
MARION IL-
805 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA. A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM FOR SOUTHERN 
PORTIONS OF MARION COUNTY. 

LAT...LON 3870 8914 3882 8914 3883 8914 3883 8895
      3878 8881
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 248DEG 37KT 3885 8874

$$

TILLY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
554 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/106 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009/

ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES A VERY
MOIST UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP...INITIALLY WE BELIEVE SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE STORM MODE.
BUT GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE THE CELLS
MERGE INTO LINEAR BOWING COMPLEXES WHICH WILL AFFECT NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH DURING THE EVENING WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TO THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. NOT SURE ABOUT THE SEVERITY OR COVERAGE OF
THIS CONVECTION GIVEN THE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LACK OF UPPER AIR
SUPPORT IN WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. IN ANY CASE...WEAK
WESTERLY WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING
OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE FRONT AS IT
STALLS JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE BOWING
STRUCTURES THAT ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE INITIAL SUPERCELL MODE. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY ECHO
TRAINING AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES.

SHOULD SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN ON SATURDAY
...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FRONT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE REGION AND SERVES AS THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT AND THE SUMMER HEAT WILL RETURN.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. ST. LOUIS
METRO WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105
AND 110 DEGREES. OTHER THAN VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE AND A DRY FORECAST.

SOME INDICATION IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT A TROF WILL TRY TO DIG
INTO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT WE WILL SEE.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION...
/532 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...FIRST ROUND OF TSRA HAVE PUSHED E OF UIN AND NE
OF STL ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL SHRTWV MOVG EWD THRU SERN IA AND
PREFRONTAL TROF EXTDG FM NWRN IL S TO NR STL. A SECOND ROUND OF
TSRA EXTDS FM NR EOK SW TO JUST SE OF IRK WITH AN ISOLATED CELL E
OF MCI ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WAS AHD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF MOVG
THRU THE SERN HALF OF NEBASKA AND JUST AHD OF THE CDFNT EXTDG FM
NR IRK SW THRU MCI. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE THRU UIN EARLY THIS
EVNG WITH MORE SCT TSRA MOVG THRU COU...STL AND SUS LTR THIS EVNG
AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. CDFNT SHOULD MAKE IT TO COU ARND 06Z
SAT AND THRU STL/SUS BY 09Z SAT ALTHOUGH ITS SEWD PROGRESS WILL
SLOW LTR TGT AND IT WILL BCM WKR AND MORE ILL DEFINED. WILL
INCLUDE PREVAILING TSRA OR AT LEAST A TEMPO GRP OF TSRA IN UIN
EARLY THIS EVNG AND A TEMPO GRP OF TSRA IN COU....STL AND SUS LT
THIS EVNG INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SFC WNDS WILL WKN THIS EVNG AND
GRADUALLY VEER ARND TO A W-NWLY DIRECTION BHND THE FNT LTR TGT.
WILL LEAVE THE COU...STL AND SUS TAFS DRY ON SAT ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE SCT SHRA/TSRA ACRS CNTRL MO AS THE WKNG FNT BCMS STNRY
ACRS SRN PTNS OF MO IL. DO NOT SEE MUCH CLOUDINESS IN UIN ON
SAT...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A HI LVL CLOUD CEILING IN COU...STL AND SUS.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-
     MADISON-ST. CHARLES-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-
     STE. GENEVIEVE.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-
     CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-
     MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-RANDOLPH IL-
     ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
707 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-201130-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
707 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
ISOLATED...SHORT LIVED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.

THE HEAT WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX READINGS ABOVE 100 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE ST. LOUIS METROPOLITAN AREA WILL BE HOTTER DUE TO THE HEAT
ISLAND EFFECT...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND HEAT
INDEX READINGS IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES.

MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
635 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     LIGHTNING        LITCHFIELD              39.18N 89.66W
06/19/2009                   MONTGOMERY         IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            LIGHTNING STRIKE ON HOUSE CAUSED FIRE...DAMAGE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902464

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
640 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RAYMOND                 39.32N 89.57W
06/19/2009                   MONTGOMERY         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN OFF IN RAYMOND.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902465

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
710 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     WALL CLOUD       MULBERRY GROVE          38.92N 89.27W
06/19/2009                   BOND               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROTATING WALL CLOUD OBSERVED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902466

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
716 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     WALL CLOUD       1 S HAGERSTOWN          38.93N 89.17W
06/19/2009                   FAYETTE            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROTATING WALL CLOUD OBSERVED BY TRAINED SPOTTER 1 MILE
            SOUTH OF HAGERSTOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902467

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
730 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     7 ESE VANDALIA          39.27N 91.37W
06/19/2009                   PIKE               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902468

KANOFSKY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
734 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     7 ESE VANDALIA          38.94N 88.98W
06/19/2009                   FAYETTE            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CORRECTED COUNTY/STATE...LOCATION

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902468

KANOFSKY