Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 192029
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
329 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

MOC137-192039-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-090619T2045Z/
MONROE MO-
329 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3947 9118 3937 9171 3946 9171 3961 9171
      3976 9145
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 243DEG 28KT 3950 9154

$$

MOC127-163-173-192045-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-090619T2045Z/
PIKE MO-RALLS MO-MARION MO-
329 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARION...RALLS AND NORTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...

AT 329 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR CENTER...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF VANDALIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CENTER...SPAULDING...RENSSELAER...NEW LONDON AND FRANKFORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3947 9118 3937 9171 3946 9171 3961 9171
      3976 9145
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 243DEG 28KT 3950 9154

$$

GLASS

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 192047
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
347 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

MOC127-163-173-192057-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-090619T2045Z/
PIKE MO-RALLS MO-MARION MO-
347 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARION...RALLS
AND NORTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM.

LAT...LON 3947 9118 3937 9171 3946 9171 3961 9171
      3976 9145
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 243DEG 28KT 3950 9154

$$

GLASS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
107 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/106 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009/

ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES A VERY
MOIST UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP...INITIALLY WE BELIEVE SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE STORM MODE.
BUT GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE THE CELLS
MERGE INTO LINEAR BOWING COMPLEXES WHICH WILL AFFECT NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH DURING THE EVENING WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TO THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. NOT SURE ABOUT THE SEVERITY OR COVERAGE OF
THIS CONVECTION GIVEN THE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LACK OF UPPER AIR
SUPPORT IN WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. IN ANY CASE...WEAK
WESTERLY WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING
OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE FRONT AS IT
STALLS JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE BOWING
STRUCTURES THAT ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE INITIAL SUPERCELL MODE. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY ECHO
TRAINING AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES.

SHOULD SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN ON SATURDAY
...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FRONT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE REGION AND SERVES AS THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT AND THE SUMMER HEAT WILL RETURN.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. ST. LOUIS
METRO WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105
AND 110 DEGREES. OTHER THAN VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE AND A DRY FORECAST.

SOME INDICATION IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT A TROF WILL TRY TO DIG
INTO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT WE WILL SEE.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION...
/1213 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WSW WINDS AND SCT DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE AFTN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...REACHING UIN AROUND 23Z AND STL AROUND
04Z. WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MVFR CIGS SCATTERING
OUT AND IMPROVING TO VFR ON SAT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-
     MADISON-ST. CHARLES-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-
     STE. GENEVIEVE.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-
     CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-
     MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-RANDOLPH IL-
     ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
115 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-201200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
115 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 70 MPH...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED...SHORT
LIVED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

HEAT INDEX READINGS AROUND 105 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.

THE HEAT WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX READINGS ABOVE 100 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE ST. LOUIS METROPOLITAN AREA WILL BE HOTTER DUE TO THE HEAT
ISLAND EFFECT...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND HEAT
INDEX READINGS IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES.

MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ALL SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST. LOUIS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

CVKING