Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
326 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/325 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009/
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER FORECAST AREA TODAY...
EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN KS...JUST NORTH OF
JOPLIN TO JUST SOUTH OF COU...THEN ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR INTO
ILLINOIS. IN THE MEANTIME...CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPED OVER
WESTERN OK...AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF NEW MEXICO...IS
SLIDING TO THE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD APPROACH SW MO IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO...MAJOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUD OVER OVER SOUTHERN
HALF OF MO...HAS ALLOWED SB CAPES TO APPROACH 5000 J/KG WITH LITTLE
OR NO CIN. SO IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS APPROACHING MO...SHOULD SEE
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE FA TONIGHT...BUT PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM
SHOULD LESSEN FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN
THE FAR S COUNTIES WHERE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE THE HEAVIEST...AND
PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE OCCURRED OVER
THE LAST 2 NIGHTS...IE PARTS OF SOUTHERN CRAWFORD...REYNOLDS...IRON
...AND MADISON COUNTIES.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI FOR TONIGHT.

BY TOMORROW MORNING...SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING REGION...BUT COULD SEE
DECENT ACTIVITY...SO KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CWA
THROUGH 18Z...THEN BACK OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NW HALF AND
CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND PCPN NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON HOW TO
HANDLE TEMPS. FOR NOW WILL SEE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR NORTH AND LOWER
80S IN THE FAR SOUTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD DRY OUT...THOUGH
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...SO JUST WENT
WITH STATUS QUO...MAKING ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING GRIDS. HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN DRY FOR REST OF EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

BYRD
&&

.AVIATION...
/1251 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
VIS SAT AND SFC OB TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE IFR TO MVFR CLOUD DECK
PLAGUING THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING HAS STARTED TO THIN AND EXPECT
MOST SITES TO BE MVFR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TO ANTICIPATED CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT AS EJECTING SW TROF
PRODUCES LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH BEST CHANCES FOR TS
AFTER 21Z. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF
PCPN. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE INVOF
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT AS IT MEANDERS ACROSS CENTRAL MO. ATTM IFR
CIGS APPEAR LIKELY INVOF THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING.

KANOFSKY
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CRAWFORD-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-ST. FRANCOIS-
     WASHINGTON.

IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
648 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-111115-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
648 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBIA TO PITTSFIELD LINE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OZARKS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.  THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ALL SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST. LOUIS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

CVKING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
637 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

MOZ084-099-110030-
IRON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
637 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR IRON AND CENTRAL REYNOLDS
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 637 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF ELLINGTON...OR 23 MILES WEST OF
PIEDMONT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...ELLINGTON...
ANNAPOLIS...REDFORD...LESTERVILLE...SABULA...VULCAN AND DES ARC.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS
LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

CARNEY