River Flood Warning 45, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 291345
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
845 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN 
MISSOURI...
 

  SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR AFFECTING MARION COUNTY


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THIS FLOODING EVENT.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

&&

MOC127-291415-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-090331T1800Z/
/TAYM7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
845 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR.
* AT  7:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 7.9 FEET.  THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL TO 5.3 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING.


$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   03/30  03/31  04/01  04/02  04/03

SOUTH FABIUS RIVER
  TAYLOR           10    7.94       5.3    6.3    5.5    4.0    3.4

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
845 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

.UPDATE...
/845 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009/

DEFORMATION ZONE BEGINNING TO FILL IN ACROSS NERN/CNTRL MO AROUND
THE /PIVOT POINT/ CENTERED NEAR KVIH. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE PCPN OVER THIS AREA.
THIS NEW DEFORMATION ZONE WILL GRADUALLY TAKE OVER FOR THE FADING
OLD DEFORMATION ZONE OVER WRN MO.

AS THIS PRECIPITATION DOES FILL IN...THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY ERODE
THE WARM WEDGE OF AIR ALOFT THAT HAS DUG IN OVER MUCH OF THE FA N
OF I-70...ESPECIALLY AS THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE NOW STACKED SYSTEM
HAS MADE IT OFF TO OUR E AND IS CONTINUING TO PULL AWAY. THE
OCCLUDED CENTER IS JUST TO OUR S HOWEVER. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
COLDER AIR ALOFT OVER SRN MO VERSUS NERN MO.

HEADING INTO LATER TONIGHT...THE NEW DEFORMATION ZONE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EWD AND ERODE ON ITS WRN EDGE THRU ABOUT 09Z
BEFORE THE WHOLE THING GETS YANKED TO THE NE BY DAYBREAK. SOME
RESIDUAL PCPN POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY FOR SOME AREAS TO THE NE
OF KSTL.

HAVE TAPERED SNOW AMOUNTS SOME IN LIGHT OF A SLIGHTLY LATER
TRANSITION...BUT STILL LOOKING AT A DECENT SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER THE AREAS GENERALLY N OF I-70 WITH POSSIBLY 5 IN THE NRN FA
BEFORE 12Z/SUNDAY...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE S.

WARNING IN THE FAR NWRN FA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY.

TES

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/316 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009/

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL WITH UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL BE MAKING A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE
WARNING IN DROPPING SHELBY COUNTY MO...PUT WILL LEAVE THE REST OF
THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES THE SAME.

FORECASTING REASONING REMAINS NEARLY THE SAME AS MIDDAY UPDATE.
GFS/NAM ARE PRETTY SIMILAR WITH EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM
THROUGH TONIGHT.  UPPER LOW NOW OVER NERN ARKANSAS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT.  DEFORMATION ZONE CAUSING MODERATE SNOW OVER ERN
KS/W CNTRL MO WILL LIFT NEWD THIS EVENING WITH HEAVIEST AXIS OF SNOW
STAYING JUST NW OF THE CWA.  HAVE ALSO SEEN MORE FZRA/SLEET WITH
SYSTEM WHICH ALSO KEEP DOWN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...SO HAVE LOWERED
TOTAL SNOWFALL/SLEET AMOUNTS IN THE WARNING AREA.  HAVE A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TRANSITION THIS EVENING OF RAIN TO SNOW WITH SLEET MIXED IN
WHICH SHOULD ALSO LOWER OVERALL AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION SOME SLEET
IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST...BUT WILL LIMIT MENTION OF FZRA FOR NOW
TO THE WSW AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING PRECIP.  NAM AND THE GFS TO SOME DEGREE STILL SHOW A
SECONDARY...ALBEIT NARROW DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP IN THE
03-09Z TIME FRAME FROM W CNTRL IL INTO E CNTRL MO...SO HAVE KEPT A
SECONDARY MAXIMA OF 2-5 INCHES GOING IN THIS AREA. THERE HAS BEEN
SOME CONVECTION OVER THE CWA TODAY WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME OF THE
RAIN TO CHANGE OVER BRIEFLY TO SLEET...AND NAM DOES SHOW SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE 800-600MB LAYER IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN WSW AS THERE IS STILL SOME POSSIBILITY
OF TSSN THROUGH THIS EVENING. SYSTEM QUICKLY LIFTS OUT AFTER
09Z...AND ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW LINGER BEFORE 15Z
SUNDAY IN THE FAR ERN COUNTIES.

THEREAFTER...SUBSIDENCE WORKS IN QUICKLY BEHIND EXITING UPPER LOW SO
HAVE DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH MONDAY.  HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ON MONDAY NIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING
UPPER LOW/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

HAVE GONE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY WHERE THERE MAY BE SNOW TO MELT.
ALSO LEANED TOWARD COOLER NAM MOS TEMPS MONDAY BASED ON INCREASING
CLOUDS AND EXPECTED SELY WINDS.

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...LOOKS LIKE ACTIVE WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.  ENERGETIC UA REGIME IS FORECAST TO BRING
SEVERAL SYSTEMS INTO THE AREA IN FAIRLY RAPID SUCCESSION...ONE ON
MON NGT/TUE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WED NGT/THU...WITH YET A THIRD
POISED TO STRIKE BY NEXT WEEKEND.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MIDWEEK
SYSTEM MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THESE SYSTEMS.  REGARDING THE WED NGT/THU
FEATURE...ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...AND WL TREND TWD A STRONGER SOLN BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. TEMPERATURE SPECIFICS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF EACH SYSTEM...AND GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT OF
SYSTEMS ITS CERTAIN NO ONE TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL DOMINATE.   MOS
GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD FIRST START...WITH TEMPS HOVERING
AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL...COMBINED WITH SOME DAY TO DAY CHANGES TO
ACCOUNT FOR ADVECTION PATTERNS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION...
/635 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009/

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SUBTLE CHANGES WITH PREVIOUS TAF FCST IN TERMS
OF TIMING AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT THRU MORNING. IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THRU MORNING THROUGHOUT MID-MS VLY.
WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST GUSTING AT TIMES TO
30 MPH. DIFFICULTY IN FORECAST LIES IN PRECIP TIMING AND CHANGE
OVER. SUBSEQUENT WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM GULF COASTAL REGIONS
LIFTING NORTHWARD RESULTING IN PRECIP BAN FROM KSLO-KPPQ-
KIRK...WHILE FORCED ASCENT IS LEADING TO MIXED PRECIP OVER KUUV.
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO SLOWLY CHANGE TO
-SN WEST TO EAST AS COLDER AIR ENTRENCHES BEHIND THE LOW.
POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW BAND IS ANTICIPATED ALONG A LINE FROM KPIA-
KPPQ AND AS FAR SOUTH AS KUUV. WINTER WEATHER SHOULD END THRU
MORNING HOURS WITH CLEARING THEREAFTER AND WINDS TAPERING.

SIPPRELL

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-
     CALLAWAY-COLE-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MARION-
     MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-RALLS-SHELBY-ST.
     CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-WARREN.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND
     IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-
     MADISON IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
834 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-291200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
834 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...WITH A BRIEF INSTANCE OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE...AS COLDER AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM EXITING THE REGION. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE
REFER TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PRODUCTS.

A STRONG NORTH WIND WILL GUST TO 35 MPH THIS EVENING. WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE HEAVY WET SNOWFLAKES...VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER. PLEASE SEE
THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER.
PLEASE SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ATTENTION IS REQUIRED. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
825 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LEWISTOWN               40.08N  91.81W
03/28/2009                   LEWIS              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FROM 530 PM AND 820 PM...GUSTING WINDS BREAKING ONE
            INCH DIAMETER LIMBS FROM TREES

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0901639

KARLZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
839 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 PM     SNOW             QUINCY                  39.93N  91.39W
03/28/2009  E0.0 INCH        ADAMS              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            IN DOWNTOWN QUINCY...WET SNOW MIXING WITH RAINSHOWERS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0901640

KARLZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
906 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0904 PM     SLEET            1 W LA GRANGE           40.05N  91.52W
03/28/2009  M0.20 INCH       LEWIS              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SLEET ACCUMULATING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0901641

KARLZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
919 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0917 PM     SNOW             SULLIVAN                38.22N  91.17W
03/28/2009  E0.0 INCH        FRANKLIN           MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RAIN JUST CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0901642

KARLZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
928 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 PM     SNOW             1 SSW BLAND             38.29N  91.64W
03/28/2009  M0.0 INCH        GASCONADE          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AT THIS TIME

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0901643

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
946 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0944 PM     SLEET            1 S BOWLING GREEN       39.32N  91.20W
03/28/2009  M0.00 INCH       PIKE               MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            OBSERVER REPORTS SLEET AND A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN
            WITH RAIN AT THIS TIME

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0901644

CARNEY