River Flood Warning 261, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 200208
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
808 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN 
MISSOURI...
 

  MISSOURI RIVER NEAR CHAMOIS AFFECTING CALLAWAY AND OSAGE COUNTIES

  MISSOURI RIVER AT GASCONADE AFFECTING GASCONADE AND MONTGOMERY 
  COUNTIES 

  MISSOURI RIVER AT HERMANN AFFECTING GASCONADE AND MONTGOMERY 
  COUNTIES 
 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.THIS FLOOD WARNING IS A RESULT OF AROUND 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION 
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION 
FORECAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND ISSUE 
FOLLOW UP STATEMENTS AS CONDITIONS OR FORECASTS CHANGE.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

&&

MOC027-151-210208-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0261.091120T0600Z-091122T0600Z/
/CMSM7.1.ER.091120T0600Z.091120T0600Z.091120T1800Z.NO/
808 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSOURI RIVER NEAR CHAMOIS.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
* AT  7:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO FLOOD STAGE AFTER 
  MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE:  LOWER LYING BOTTOM LAND BEGINS
  TO FLOOD.

$$

MOC073-139-210207-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0260.000000T0000Z-091124T2136Z/
/GSCM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.091120T1200Z.091123T0936Z.NO/
808 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSOURI RIVER AT GASCONADE.
* AT 7:00 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.3 ESTIMATED FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CREST NEAR 23.6 FEET FRIDAY 
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE.  MINOR FLOODING OF CROPLAND 
  BEGINS.

$$

MOC073-139-210207-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0262.000000T0000Z-091122T1200Z/
/HRNM7.1.ER.091119T1915Z.091120T0600Z.091121T1200Z.NO/
808 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSOURI RIVER AT HERMANN.
* AT  7:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 21.3 FEET BY 
  FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY 
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 21.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE.  MINOR FLOODING OF CROPLAND 
  BEGINS.

$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   11/20  11/21  11/22  11/23  11/24

MISSOURI RIVER
  CHAMOIS          17   16.10      17.0   16.8   16.1   14.4   11.5
  GASCONADE        22  E23.30      23.6   23.4   22.9   21.8   18.9
  HERMANN          21   21.19      21.3   21.0   20.2   18.9   16.0

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 201613
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1013 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSOURI...
 
  MISSOURI RIVER...

        NEAR CHAMOIS...AFFECTING CALLAWAY AND OSAGE COUNTIES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.THIS IS THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THIS FLOODING EVENT.

&&

MOC027-151-201643-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0261.000000T0000Z-091122T0600Z/
/CMSM7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1013 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE MISSOURI RIVER NEAR CHAMOIS.
* AT 7:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 16.4 FEET.  THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL TO 16.2 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   11/21  11/22  11/23  11/24  11/25

MISSOURI RIVER
  CHAMOIS          17   16.40      16.2   15.3   13.7   11.0    9.7

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
532 AM CST THU NOV 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/453 AM CST THU NOV 19 2009/

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE LOW PRES SYS RESPONSIBLE FOR CLOUDY
AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS STARTING TO MOVE NE
OUT OF MO. ECMWF/UKMET/GFS/GEM IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SREF/NAM/LOCAL
WRF ON CONTINUED NEWD MOVEMENT WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE GRTLKS
BY 00Z FRI. OVERALL...LINGERING -DZ IN THE NE SHOULD END BY AFTN
WITH CLDS CLRG FM SW TO NE AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. TREND OF
DECREASING CLDS WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH WARMER HIGHS FCST
IN THE SW DUE TO MORE AFTN SUNSHINE...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY
OVER NWRN AR/NERN OK WITH CLRG. ADDITIONALLY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
FOG TONIGHT DUE TO INHIBITED MIXING FM CLD COVER...MOIST GROUND AND
BL...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...AND LGT WINDS WITH SFC
HIGH TO THE E.

NEXT CHC OF RAIN TIED TO TROF CURRENTLY APCHG ROCKY MOUNTAINS. MOST
OF THE SW ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE S HOWEVER MODELS HAVE
BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH A MORE
SHEARED SOLUTION...BRINGING A FASTER NRN SYS ACROSS NE/IA/MO.
MAINTAINED GOING SCHC POPS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT FOR THIS SYS.

H5 RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT TROF APPROACHES
ON SUN NIGHT...LEADING TO A BRIEF WARM UP FOR SAT AND SUN. THERE IS
SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT THIS PD WITH GFS/GEM BRINGING A QUICK
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE BI-STATE REGION ON SUN NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
MAIN TROF ON MON NIGHT/TUE BUT THIS FEATURE IS NOT SHOWN BY THE
ECMWF. KEPT SUN NIGHT DRY DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE.
MODELS POINT TO AN ACTIVE WX PATTN MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT
DESPITE SIGNIFICANT PLACEMENT AND TIMING DIFFERENCES. CHCS OF WINTER
PRECIP WILL DEPEND ON HOW COLD OF AN AIR MASS ACCOMPANIES THIS SYS.

NO CHANGES MADE PAST 00Z TUE.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION...
/529 AM CST THU NOV 19 2009/

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH DRIER AIR
TAKING OVER FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLEARING LINE ALMOST TO CWA BORDER
AND EXPECT AN IMPROVING TREND FROM LOW END MVFR TO VFR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY. STARTED TO PLACE FOG INTO FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND EXPECTED.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
503 AM CST THU NOV 19 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-201115-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
503 AM CST THU NOV 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PARTS OF THE ILLINOIS
RIVER. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG PARTS OF THE
ILLINOIS RIVER. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

KANOFSKY