River Flood Warning 259, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 181558
FLSLSX

FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
958 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN MISSOURI...
 


 MERAMEC RIVER NEAR ...ARNOLD
  

 BIG RIVER NEAR ...BYRNESVILLE




PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THERE IS NO SIGINIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION 
AND ISSUE FOLLOW UP STATEMENTS AS CONDITIONS OR FORECASTS CHANGE.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/


&&

MOC099-191553-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0259.091118T1558Z-091119T1832Z/
/BYRM7.1.ER.091118T0818Z.091118T1400Z.091118T1832Z.NO/
958 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG RIVER AT BYRNESVILLE
* THIS MORNING STAGE WAS NEAR 16.2 FEET
* AT 8:45 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


$$

MOC099-189-191552-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0255.000000T0000Z-091124T0224Z/
/ARNM7.1.ER.091118T1010Z.091120T1800Z.091123T0224Z.NO/
958 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MERAMEC RIVER NEAR ARNOLD.
* AT 8:45 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 27.7 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON
  AND FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...HOUSE AT THE END OF KASEBAUM LANE IS 
  SURROUNDED BY WATER JUST WEST OF LEMAY FERRY ROAD BRIDGE.
* IMPACT...AT 24.0 FEET...CORISANDE HILLS ROAD BEGINS FLOODING AT THIS
  HEIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 23.5 FEET...THE BOAT RAMP AND FISHING BANK AT ARNOLD 
  CITY PARK IS FLOODED.


$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   11/19  11/20  11/21  11/22  11/23

BIG RIVER
  BYRNESVILLE      16   16.19      12.6   10.3    8.3    7.5    6.9

MERAMEC RIVER
  ARNOLD           24   24.41      26.7   27.6   26.9   25.0   23.3

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 190130
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
730 PM CST WED NOV 18 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN 
MISSOURI...
 

  BIG RIVER AT BYRNESVILLE AFFECTING JEFFERSON COUNTY


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT ISSUED REGARDING THIS FLOODING EVENT 
AT BYRNESVILLE...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

&&

MOC099-190200-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0259.000000T0000Z-091119T1832Z/
/BYRM7.1.ER.091118T0818Z.091118T1400Z.091118T1937Z.NO/
730 PM CST WED NOV 18 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE BIG RIVER AT BYRNESVILLE.
* AT  6:45 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  1:37 PM WEDNESDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 11.0 FEET BY FRIDAY 
  MORNING.

$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   11/19  11/20  11/21  11/22  11/23

BIG RIVER
  BYRNESVILLE      16   15.43      13.7   11.0    9.6    8.7    7.7

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
531 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/427 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009/

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS COMPLEX LOW OVERHEAD WITH AT LEAST 3
DISTINCT VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND IT. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
EAST CENTRAL MO PER 09Z ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTED BY PIVOT POINT ON
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC.

ECMWF/UKMET/GFS/GEM IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH SREF/NAM/LOCAL WRF
ON LOW PRES SYS REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN
WITH MORE PRONOUNCED NEWD MOVEMENT THEREAFTER...A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION THAN THE NWWD WOBBLE SHOWN IN PREV MODEL RUNS. END RESULT
IS THE SAME WITH -RA/DZ ENDING FM SW TO NE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE GRTLKS. LITTLE DIURNAL TEMP CHANGE
EXPECTED TODAY/TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED -RA/DZ UNDER PERSISTENT
CLOUDS...RECYCLED SFC AIR MASS...AND COOL H85/H92 TEMPS.

SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT EXISTS ON EVOLUTION OF THE TROF APCHG THE
WEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. APPEARS FRI NIGHT WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME PD FOR -RA IF PRECIP OCCURS THIS FAR N BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO IS LOW. ATTM APPEARS PRECIP IS MORE LIKELY WITH THE
STRONGER MON/TUE SYS. NO CHANGES MADE PAST 00Z MON.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION...
/528 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009/

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...

STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH DRIZZLE TODAY.
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TOMORROW AS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF
REGION.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
440 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-191045-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
440 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PARTS OF THE ILLINOIS
RIVER. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG PARTS OF THE
ILLINOIS RIVER. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

KANOFSKY