River Flood Warning 176, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 261644
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1144 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSOURI...
 
  NORTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.THIS IS THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THIS FLOODING EVENT...

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

&&

MOC111-261714-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0176.000000T0000Z-090927T2024Z/
/EWNM7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1144 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE NORTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING.
* AT 11:30 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 10.8 FEET.  THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL TO 8.5 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING.


$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   09/27  09/28  09/29  09/30  10/01

NORTH FABIUS RIVER
  EWING            11   10.53       8.5    7.0    5.5    4.6    4.1

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
610 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/434 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009/

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER ECNTRL KS STILL CLOSED PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ATTM. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD THRU MO AND IL
TODAY AS IT OPENS UP. STRONG VORT MAX IMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR PCPN THIS AFTN...WITH OTHER DYNAMIC
EFFECTS DRIVING THE INITIAL BAND OF SHRA/TSRA THIS MORNING. ONCE
THIS SYSTEM EXITS...A STRONG DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN OUT
OF CANADA BY MONDAY AND HELP CARVE OUT A NEW LONGWAVE H500 TROF
OVER ERN NOAM SIGNALLING A NEW PATTERN THAT WILL HOLD TRUE THRU
ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

IN THE NEAR TERM...DENSE FOG IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NE AND E AND
HAS MOVED INTO SOME OF OUR SWRN IL COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO ADVECT SLOWLY WWD THRU DAYBREAK AND WE ARE EXPECTING A DROP IN
VSBYS TO 1/4SM OR LESS DURING THIS TIME IN AREAS THAT IT IMPACTS.
AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 15Z.

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING STEADILY EWD ACROSS
WRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS MAINLY THE RESULT OF UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS OUT AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BUT IS
ALSO BEING DRIVEN TO A LESSER EXTENT BY STRONG VORT MAX OVER ERN
KS. LOOK FOR THIS TO DRIVE EWD ACROSS THE FA BY LATE MORNING...BUT
WITH BEST JET DYNAMICS SUPPORT MOVING NEWD. HAVE THEREFORE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER NERN/CNTRL MO AND WCNTRL IL THIS MORNING.

LOOK FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR CLOSER TO THE STRONG VORT MAX
THIS AFTN AS IT DRIVES EWD ROUGHLY IN THE SAME LOCN AS THE I-70
CORRIDOR. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING IN THIS AREA...INCLUDING THE
STL METRO AREA AND AREAS S AND E. SEVERE WX POSSIBLE ON TWO MAIN
FACTORS...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS INDICATED BY HIGH
VERTICAL TOTALS OF 30...AND PRESENCE OF SPIN GENERATED BY STRONG
VORT MAX MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO IN SOME OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP. B-LYR MOISTURE IS MORE MARGINAL AND
WILL PLAY THE CRITICAL ROLE HERE.

FAVOR THE COOLER MOS TEMPS FOR TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS/PCPN AS WELL AS
FOG IN THE E...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT AMOUNT OF TIME THE EVER-
WEAKENING SUN CAN WARM THINGS UP. STILL LIKE GOING AOA THE WARMEST
MOS ON SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SWLY SFC WINDS GUSTING AT
TIMES AND H900 TEMPS RISING TO NEAR +20C.

STRONG CDFNT MOVES THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DESPITE ITS STRENGTH...
EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND PCPN...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY NWLY SFC WINDS THRU MONDAY. PREFER THE COOLER MOS TEMPS
FOR MAXES MONDAY. A VERY SLOW TEMP RECOVERY THEN EXPECTED THRU
WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE/S EWD PROGRESS IS SLOWED COMPARED TO EARLIER
MODEL RUNS.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...
/601 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009/

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TS ACROSS CNTL MO IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. UPPER AIR
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD THRU CNTL MO TODAY. AS IT DOES...A
BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA TO DEVELOP AS THE LOW APPROACHES
THE AREA. THESE TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. SKIES
SHUD CLEAR OUT AGAIN WITH LIGHT AND VRB WINDS. FG MAY DEVELOP
AGAIN AS CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...TOO
MANY UNCERTAINTIES EXIST TO MENTION IN TAF ATTM.

TILLY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BOND IL-
     CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
     WASHINGTON IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
355 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-271200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
355 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO ONE
QUARTER MILE OR LESS. IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED BY
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE ADVISORY PRODUCT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. BY AFTERNOON...SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
OVER PARTS OF THE ST LOUIS METROPOLITAN AREA AND AREAS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS
WHERE A SLIGHT RISK EXISTS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON
CONVECTIVE WATCHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION
CENTER WATCH PRODUCTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TES