River Flood Warning 167, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 260126
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
826 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN MISSOURI...
 
            NORTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR ...EWING


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE FOLLOW UP
STATEMENTS AS CONDITIONS OR FORECASTS CHANGE.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/


&&

MOC111-270126-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0167.000000T0000Z-090627T0651Z/
/EWNM7.1.ER.090625T2152Z.090625T2345Z.090626T0651Z.NO/
826 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2009


THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NORTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING
* UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 7:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT
  TONIGHT.


$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   06/26  06/27  06/28  06/29  06/30

NORTH FABIUS RIVER
  EWING            11   11.10      10.4    7.3    5.2    4.5    4.3

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 261439
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
939 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN 
MISSOURI...


  NORTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENT.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

&&

MOC111-261509-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0167.000000T0000Z-090627T0651Z/
/EWNM7.1.ER.090625T2152Z.090625T2345Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
939 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE NORTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING.
* AT 8:30 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.3 FEET. 
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 8:45 PM LAST EVENING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FALLING TO NEAR 5 FEET 
  BY SATURDAY EVENING.


$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   06/27  06/28  06/29  06/30  07/01

NORTH FABIUS RIVER
  EWING             11    8.26     5.7    4.7    4.4    4.2    4.3

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
347 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/346 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2009/

HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAIN LOCKED IN OVER THE BI-STATE REGION.  THERE
HAS BEEN SOME RELIEF UP ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
TODAY.  HIGHEST HEAT INDEX READINGS HAVE BEEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...105 AT KBLV AND KSAR...104 AT KCPS...103 AT
KSTL...102 AT KENL ARE THE TOPS SO FAR.  CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI HAVE ONLY HIT THE MID AND UPPER 90S TODAY.  IN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO HAS POPPED UP HERE AND THERE ONLY TO BE SQUASHED BY
THE UPPER RIDGE.  SINCE THERES BEEN CONVECTION EVERY NIGHT
SOMEWHERE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...AND THE LOCATION OF SAID
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRETTY UNPREDICTABLE...IVE KEPT LOW
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE GOING FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS AT LEAST AS HOT AND STICKY IF NOT WORSE ACROSS EASTERN
MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...WITH CONDITIONS EQUALLY AS HOT AND
HUMID ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WHERE IT WAS COOLER TODAY.
IN FACT...IT MIGHT BE A LITTLE MORE HUMID ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE AREA AND WASHES OUT.  THIS WILL CAUSE MOISTURE
TO POOL OVER THE AREA AND DRIVING HEAT INDEX READINGS UP.  NO RELIEF
ON SATURDAY EITHER AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT.  ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS AND OUR LOCAL WRF KICK OFF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HAVE THEREFORE
KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.  NOT SURE HOW MUCH COOLER ITS GOING TO GET BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY...HIGHS MIGHT ONLY REACH THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER
90S...BUT IT AT LEAST THE AIR SHOULD BE DRIER WITH DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  I STILL DONT BELIEVE THEM.  CLOSED LOWS DONT
GO TO THE GREAT LAKES TO DIE IN THE SUMMER...THEY GO UP TO THE
HUDSON BAY.  HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO BE VERY CONSERVATIVE WITH
THE COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK.  HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON THE WARM MEMBER
OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MOS WHICH KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S...WHICH COMES OUT TO ABOUT 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW GIVEN
THIS NORTHWARD MENTAL ADJUSTMENT TO THE UPPER PATTERN...ALTHOUGH
ITS POSSIBLE AN MCS OR TWO COULD RIDE DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE.  HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW THOUGH.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION...
/1252 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2009/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...STILL NO WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARY ON WHICH TO TIME
THIS AFTERNOONS TSRA THREAT. A BIT OF ACCAS IN THE STL ATTM COULD
MEAN THE FIRST THREAT OF STORMS WILL BE AT STL AND SUS...BUT BLV
SOMEWHAT GREATER THREAT SHOULD BE WITH APPROACH OF SFC TROF/WK
COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USED VCTS IN TAF FOR
A VERY ROUGH APPROXIMATION FOR TIMING...BUT IF STORMS DO GET GOING
ALONG FRONT UPDATES USING NOWCASTING TECHNIQUES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
PIN DOWN THREAT A BIT BTR. STORM THREAT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY ERLY
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH BOUNDARY WASHING OUT NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR POOLING DWPTS AND LACK OF MIXING COULD CAUSE MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT COU...STL...AND SUS ERY FRI MRNG.

TRUETT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-CALLAWAY-
     COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-IRON-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LEWIS-
     LINCOLN-MADISON-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-
     PIKE-RALLS-REYNOLDS-SHELBY-ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-
     WARREN-WASHINGTON.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ST. CHARLES-
     ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-BROWN
     IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-
     MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-
     RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MADISON IL-
     ST. CLAIR IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
357 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-261115-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
357 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
IMMEDIATE ST. LOUIS METROPOLITAN AREA DUE TO THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND
EFFECT. AS A RESULT...HEAT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO
THE ADVISORY AND WARNING PRODUCTS.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE WIND
GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 110 ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LOUIS METROPOLITAN AREA DUE
TO THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT. AS A RESULT...HEAT ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE ADVISORY AND WARNING
PRODUCTS.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
EVENING IF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORM.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

CARNEY