Flash Flood Warning 96, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WGUS73 KLSX 160109
FFSLSX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
709 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2009

MOC151-160300-
/O.CON.KLSX.FF.W.0096.000000T0000Z-091116T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSAGE MO-
709 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
900 PM CST...

AT 702 PM CST...COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT BOTH COUNTY ROAD 412 
AND COUNTY ROAD 416 IN THE BONNOTS MILL AREA WERE WATER COVERED. 
WHILE THE HEAVY RAIN THAT PROMPTED THIS FLOODING HAS DECREASED IN 
INTENSITY...RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING. ANY 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY AGGRAVATE THE EXISTING CONDITIONS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...BONNOTS MILL 
AND LOOSE CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON
FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.

IN HILLY TERRAIN...THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH
ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW
INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3839 9212 3847 9217 3846 9210 3847 9204
      3850 9201 3855 9203 3858 9197 3867 9186
      3869 9177 3871 9174 3871 9166 3837 9188
      3829 9197 3829 9219 3836 9219

$$

GLASS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1149 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/152 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2009/

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HONE IN ON UPPER LOW EVOLUTION AND TRACK
WITH A COMPLETELY CUT-OFF AND SLOWER SOLUTION DEPICTED. A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH A WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL OF 2
TO 4 INCHES FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL REISSUE THE ESF
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF RENEWED RIVER FLOODING.

COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT TO A KFAM...KSAR...KSLO LINE AS OF 1 AM AND
SLOWED TO A SNAILS PACE...IF NOT COMPLETELY STALLED. A NARROW LINE
OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY TO JUST NORTH OF QUINCY
ILLINOIS.

I EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND
SOLIDIFY INTO A RAIN SHIELD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THE TIGHT POP
GRADIENT THAT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE WITH A SLOW
PROGRESSION OF CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS
ST. LOUIS AREA MAY ONLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN RAIN SHIELD OVERSPREADS THE
METRO.

A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL OCCLUDE...WRAPPING BACK UNDER THE UPPER LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A COMPLETELY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
BE CENTERED ACROSS MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS BY
WEDNESDAY. MINIMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION...
/1142 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2009/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
RAIN AND IFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONCE CONDITIONS GO
DOWN...IT LOOKS LIKE WELL SEE IFR...AND POTENTIALLY LIFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK. NOT SURE WELL SEE MUCH MORE
THAN A TEMPORARY BREAK UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS
CAUSING THIS WEATHER EJECTS NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
856 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-161115-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
856 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI THIS MORNING. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

A PROLONGED RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN A HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK PRODUCT FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS.

MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER. SEE THE
APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A PROLONGED RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN A HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK PRODUCT FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS.

MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER. SEE THE
APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
251 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MOKANE                  38.67N  91.87W
11/15/2009                   CALLAWAY           MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY 94 CLOSED NEAR MOKANE DUE TO FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0900368

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
313 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W LOOSE CREEK         38.51N  92.01W
11/15/2009                   COLE               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COUNTY ROAD 412 NEAR THE OSAGE RIVER BASIN CURRENTLY
            INUNDATED WITH 6 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING OVER THE ROAD.
            LOCAL FARM FIELDS ALSO BECOMING INUNDATED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0900369

SIPPRELL