Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WGUS73 KLSX 041632
FFSLSX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1132 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

MOC071-073-139-151-183-219-041800-
/O.CON.KLSX.FF.W.0054.000000T0000Z-090704T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FRANKLIN MO-OSAGE MO-GASCONADE MO-ST. CHARLES MO-WARREN MO-
MONTGOMERY MO-
1132 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTGOMERY...
WARREN...SOUTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES...GASCONADE...NORTHERN OSAGE AND
NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

AT 1123 AM CDT...ISOLATED SMALL THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAINFALL WERE OCCURING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY. 
EARLIER THIS MORNING AT 1017 AM CDT AUGUSTA MISSOURI IN SOUTHWEST 
ST. CHARLES COUNTY REPORTED 2.46 INCHES OF RAINFALL. 

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...GRAY SUMMIT...
HERMANN...NEW HAVEN...PACIFIC...UNION...VILLA RIDGE...WARRENTON...
WASHINGTON...AUGUSTA...BEAUFORT...BIG SPRING...CHAMOIS...DEFIANCE...
DRAKE...DUTZOW...JONESBURG...MARTHASVILLE...MINEOLA...NEW MELLE...
TRELOAR AND TRUESDALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON
FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.

REPORT FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY SO THAT THEY
MAY TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO CLOSE FLOODED ROADWAYS. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3858 9197 3864 9191 3866 9186 3871 9168
      3871 9165 3892 9165 3875 9073 3831 9076
      3854 9203 3855 9203

$$

PRZYBYLINSKI

000 
WGUS73 KLSX 041752
FFSLSX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1252 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

MOC071-073-139-151-183-219-041807-
/O.EXP.KLSX.FF.W.0054.000000T0000Z-090704T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FRANKLIN MO-OSAGE MO-GASCONADE MO-ST. CHARLES MO-WARREN MO-
MONTGOMERY MO-
1252 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR MONTGOMERY...
WARREN...SOUTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES...GASCONADE...NORTHERN OSAGE AND
NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3858 9197 3864 9191 3866 9186 3871 9168
      3871 9165 3892 9165 3875 9073 3831 9076
      3854 9203 3855 9203

$$

SIPPRELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
649 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/415 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/

MODELS HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME PINNING DOWN CONVECTION TRENDS
OVER REGION THIS MORNING...SO MUCH OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS
IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT TRENDS. PRIMARY AREA OF MOST
ACTIVE CONVECTION...AND HEAVY RAIN...HAS BECOME FOCUSED ON THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT THIS TREND
TO CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING...WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF A SWD SHIFT
AS ACTIVITY BECOMES A BIT MORE OUTFLOW DOMINATED. CONTEMPLATED
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT GROUND
CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY WITH 3 HOUR FFG RUNNING IN THE 2.5-3
INCH RANGE...HOWEVER LOCALLIZED WATER PROBLEMS ARE CERTAINLY NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS DURING THE
MORNING. WITH THIS SWD SHIFT OF THE RAIN AXIS IT APPEARS THAT THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FOR OUR N AREAS...WILL CANCEL
THE FFA FOR THIS AREA BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
A WHILE THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE HEAVILY
INFLUENCED BY THE REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY. ITS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD BECOME THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY...AND IF THAT OCCURS
THE REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR WELL SOUTH OF THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY
AS INDICATED BY THE MODELS...WHICH MAY ALSO MEAN THAT THE PRECIP
WILL EXIT OUR AREA THSI EVENING SOONER THAN SUGGESTED BY FROPA.
BECAUSE OF THIS I STAYED A LITTLE BIT CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS IN
OUR S AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO DONT KNOW HOW
MUCH AMS WILL BE ABLE TO DESTABLIZE DUE TO ALL OF THE RAIN AND
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS AND OF COURSE THIS WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT
ON SVR TSRA THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CERTAINLY FAR
S AREAS SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAXIMIZING AFTERNOON HEATING.
ALONG THIS LINE...ITS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT BOTH MET AND MOS
GUID ARE FORECASTING A RECORD LOW MAX FOR TODAY IN STL.

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AFTER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DID ADD
SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN N AREAS FOR MON AS MODELS ARE HINTING THAT
RESIDUAL LO LVL INSTABILITY AND A BIT OF SHORTWV ENERGY MAY KICK
OFF A FEW AFTERNOON TSRA IN THE DEVELOPING NW FLOW PATTERN.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION...
/641 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS MORNING IS THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT LEAST 50NM NORTH AND SOUTH OF I-70 THIS MORNING
BOUNDED BY MARGINAL CONDITIONS. LOW CONDITIONS WILL BE LIFTING
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH LATE MORNING...BUT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CAUSING THIS RAIN AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY IT WILL BRING DOWN A LARGE
AREA OF IFR CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
WHICH WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING.

CARNEY

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 4
STL 82 IN 1990
COU 76 IN 1980

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
500 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-051000-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
500 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.

THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE IN AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBIA
MISSOURI...LITCHFIELD ILLINOIS LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...ALTHOUGH A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBIA MISSOURI...LITCHFIELD ILLINOIS LINE. IN
ADDITION...SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY HEAVY RAINFALL OR
FLOODING THAT THEY OBSERVE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
650 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     FLOOD            1 NE MOKANE             38.68N 91.86W
07/04/2009                   CALLAWAY           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER HIGHWAY 94 BETWEEN MOKANE AND STEEDMAN ...
            DEPTH OF THE WATER OVER THE ROAD AND IMPASSABLE NATURE
            IS UNDETERMINED AT THIS TIME

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902517

SIPPRELL