Areal Flood Warning 82, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
642 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2009

.UPDATE...
/642 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2009/

ADJUSTED MORNING POPS FOR WRN EDGE OF PCPN BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...WHICH WILL TAKE IT ABOUT ONE TIER OF COUNTIES FURTHER W
THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. OTRW...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST.

TES

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/456 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2009/

DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF WX ONGOING...WILL KEEP THIS BRIEF. AREAL
FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS COVER MUCH OF THE FA ATTM INCLUDING
ALL OF THE MO COUNTIES AND SOME OF THE IL COUNTIES NEAR THE STL
METRO AREA. THE FFA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THESE AREAS NOW BEING
SERVICED BY WARNINGS AND WARNINGS WILL NOW CONVEY INFORMATION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THE REST OF THE FA...INCLUDING PARTS
OF SWRN IL...WILL REMAIN IN A FFA THRU THE REST OF THE DAY...
ALTHOUGH INITIAL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR NEW
FLOODING WILL BE DURING THE MORNING AND PERHAPS EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS.

MODELS NOT FULLY HANDLING THE WRN BULGE OF PCPN COMING N OUT OF
AR FROM A WAVE THAT HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT...AND HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS TO ACCOUNT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIR POPS FORECAST FOR TODAY THAN MOS FOR MANY AREAS BUT
BY AFTN SHOULD SEE PCPN RESUME ITS STEADY EWD PROGRESS. BY EVENING
THE H500 TROF AXIS WILL SWING THRU...WITH A SEPARATE SRN STREAM
SYSTEM BEING LEFT BEHIND. THIS SRN STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAR
ENUF S TO PREVENT ANY IMPACT...ALTHOUGH ITS CHANCES OF GRAZING THE
FAR SRN/SERN COUNTIES IS INCREASED IF IT CLOSES OFF AS THE NAM HAS
SHOWN THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS.

OTHERWISE...HAVE KEPT FCST DRY AFTER TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL...AND MAIN JET RETREATS TO THE N. A CDFNT DROPS DOWN
ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME...MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY PCPN
DEVELOPMENT.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...
/631 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2009/

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A LARGE AREA OF RA CONTINUES TO MOVE NNE OUT OF
AR THIS MORNING. STL/SUS CAN EXPECT TO SEE RA WITH VFR AND MVFR
VISBYS THRU LATE MORNING. AS THE RA COMES TO AN END...VFR CIGS
WILL FILTER INTO THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH GUSTY SWLY TO WLY WINDS.
THESE WINDS SHUD DIMINISH THIS EVE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN WLY TONIGHT AT AROUND 12 KTS.

TILLY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BOND IL-CLINTON IL-
     FAYETTE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
440 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-311200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
440 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH
PRODUCT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND WILL ONLY FURTHER
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ATTENTION IS REQUIRED. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
HEAVY RAINFALL OR ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
753 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FREDERICKTOWN           37.56N  90.30W
10/30/2009                   MADISON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HIGHWAY Z CLOSED WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES OF WATER OVER THE
            ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0900320

JP

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
855 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     HEAVY RAIN       AUXVASSE                39.02N  91.89W
10/30/2009  E1.98 INCH       CALLAWAY           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNT PAST 24 HOURS 1.98 INCHES -
            AUXVASSE MO

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0900325

PRZYBYLINSKI