Areal Flood Warning 76, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
415 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/402 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2009/

THE UPPER LOW WAS ON THE MOVE THIS MORNING AND WAS LOCATED NEAR
OMAHA AT 08Z...WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND A SERIES OF SFC
LOWS INVOF OF THE MS RIVER. THE MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN HAS PUSHED OUT
OF THE CWA AS THE DRY SLOT HAS PROGRESSED ACROSS THE AREA...
LEAVING JUST SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN ITS WAKE. THE
SFC LOWS WILL CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN THIS MORNING...LIFTING NEWD
TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN VCNTY BY EARLY EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LIFTING UPPER LOW. WITH CAA...GUSTY NW WINDS AND SOLID LOW
CLOUDS...EXPECT NEARLY STEADY OR A SLIGHT FALL IN TEMPERATURES
TODAY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE SHOULD BE IT AS FAR AS PCPN
GOES. A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO DIG ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING A NEW SLUG OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK LRG SCALE
ASCENT. THIS WILL AT LEAST MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF DRIZZLE TONIGHT
ALONG WITH SEEDING THE LOW LEVELS TO BRING A CHANCE OF SOME
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO CLEAR BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY WITH WAA COMMENCING BY
AFTERNOON AND SOME DECENT TEMP RECOVERY...BUT HIGHS REMAINING
BELOW AVERAGE.

A NEW TROF WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL U.S LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THRU THE CWA SUN
NGT INTO EARLY MON. A PRONOUNCED WAA REGIME IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT COMBINED WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL
SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SUN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC GEM ALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO I HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS. IF THE 12Z RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND...THEN AT LEAST
LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN ORDER.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION...
/1213 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2009/

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...DOUBLE BARRELED SFC LOW PRES SYS CONTINUES
LIFTING NE WITH -RA ENDING FM W TO E ALTHOUGH LIFR/IFR CIGS AND -DZ
WILL LINGER UNTIL UPPER LVL LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. EXPECTING
LIFR/IFR CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR BY FRI AFTN AND THESE CIGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE 24HR TAF PD. AT 05Z...CDFNT HAS MOVED
THROUGH COU AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
WLY AFTER FROPA.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
435 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-241100-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
435 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

GLASS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1154 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1153 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SHREWSBURY              38.59N  90.33W
10/22/2009  E2.10 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL SO FAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0900275

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
319 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0316 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CLAYTON                 38.64N  90.33W
10/23/2009                   ST. LOUIS          MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING WAS REPORTED ON HILLSBORO ROAD WEST OF MERAMAC
            STATION

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0900276

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
330 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 AM     HEAVY RAIN       AVISTON                 38.61N  89.61W
10/23/2009  M2.60 INCH       CLINTON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.6 INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN PAST 24 HOURS

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0900277

GKS