Gale Warning 31, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PDT MON OCT 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM NEVADA ON TUESDAY
BRINGING VERY CHILLY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER THIS WEEK. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
WEEKEND CALLS FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT OVERNIGHT CLOUDS ALONG
THE LOS ANGELES BEACHES...AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...LATEST SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING
ONSHORE WHICH IS RESULTING IN A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE NORTHEAST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE FLOW DID ALLOW FOR SOME NICE
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH MOST AREAS EASILY
INTO THE 80S.

FORECAST WISE...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL STRONG NORTHERLY
WIND EVENT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS ALLUDED TO IN THE MORNING
DISCUSSION...THE NAM IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH REGARD TO
THE WIND EVENT...BUT THE GFS DOES APPEAR STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
SO...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND EVENT FOR THE
AREA AND WILL SKEW THE FORECAST GREATLY TOWARDS THE NAM SOLUTION.
WITH THAT SAID...THERE ARE SOME VERY GOOD INGREDIENTS COMING
TOGETHER TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY. A POTENT 160+ KT JET WILL BE OVER
THE AREA ALONG WITH GREAT WIND SUPPORT AT MID-LEVELS. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE WARNING-LEVEL WINDS (GUSTS TO 70 MPH) ARE LIKELY ACROSS
ZONES 39/52/53/54/59 STARTING TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THRU
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST NORTH WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT.
IN ADDITION...RATHER STRONG ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE VALLEYS OF VTU/LAX COUNTIES. WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE...WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ZONES
39/52/53/54/59 FROM TUESDAY MORNING THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
NORTH WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH NOTICEABLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
FLOW TURNING TO NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TEMP WISE...THIS NORTHERLY WIND EVENT WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF COLD
AIR...SO TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS. ON THURSDAY...TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO REBOUND AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION DECREASES DUE TO WEAKER NORTHEAST FLOW.

AS FOR CLOUDS...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL BRING IN SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS...BUT NOTHING TOO OPAQUE. AS FOR MARINE
LAYER...WILL EXPECT SOME STRATUS TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL COAST
AND SALINAS RIVER VALLEY AS WELL AS THE LAX COUNTY COAST. HOWEVER
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT NO STRATUS AS THE COLD AIR
MIXES OUT THE INVERSION.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...FOR EXTENDED...THE MODELS ARE ON THE SAME
PAGE. AT UPPER LEVELS...A RATHER FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA. NEAR THE SURFACE...A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
IS FORECAST.

END RESULT WILL BE A RATHER BLAND EXTENDED FORECAST. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE LAX/VTU COUNTY
COASTAL PLAIN. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH MOST AREAS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1940Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE LATE TONIGHT WHEN MARINE
CLOUDS MAY INTRUDE INTO THE CENTRAL COAST AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY
COAST BEFORE CLEARING BEFORE MID MORNING TUESDAY. A COASTAL EDDY MAY
RESULT IN A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THE MARINE LAYER WITH CEILINGS
STARTING OUT IN THE IFR CATEGORY AND LIFTING TO THE MVFR CATEGORY.
OVERALL...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE A
VERY WINDY DAY WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH
IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NIGHT DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF A COASTAL EDDY. MARINE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
BY MID MORNING. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUD INTRUSION LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...NOT INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT TAF. TUESDAY WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH POSSIBLE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THIS IS A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE TAF.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

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