Gale Warning 17, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
116 AM PDT THU MAY 7 2009

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT DID MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS AND
WINDS. ALSO ADDED SOME CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES AND THE
CENTRAL COAST FOR THIS MORNING.

WINDS AND VERY WARM TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE THE BIG WEATHER STORY
TODAY. NORTH-SOUTH GRADS REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND ARE STILL
STRENGTHENING. LAX-BFL AND SBA-BFL IS NOW AT -7.6 MB...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT CONTINUED GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AT MONTECITO HILLS AND GUSTS
NEAR 80 MPH AT WHITAKER PEAK. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BRING A VERY BRIEF LULL LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT EMPHASIS IS ON THE BRIEF AS WINDY
SHOULD PICK BACK UP. HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES THEREFORE
LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL REMAIN UNTOUCHED...WITH THE AREAS OF
MOST CONCERN BEING THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS
THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF WARMING
AT LOW LEVELS...THANKS TO THE CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AND
SLIGHT RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALL SPELLS ANOTHER HOT
DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH MORE RECORDS FALLING...WITH TEMPS
POSSIBLY HIGHER IN SOME SPOTS TODAY AS EVIDENT BY A LATE SURGE OF
WARMER 950MB TEMPS. THIS HOT AIRMASS AND CONTINUED STRONG WINDS WILL
FURTHER DRY THE AIRMASS AND KEEP THE OBVIOUS FIRE WX CONCERNS
GOING...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN SBA COUNTY.

TONIGHT WILL REMAIN WINDY...WITH MILD LOW TEMPS. THESE WINDS SHOULD
BE JUST AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT...WITH GUSTS OVER 60 MPH OVER THE
EASTERN SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR. THINGS WILL ALSO
REMAIN DRY...AND FIRE WX CONCERNS MAY EXPAND INTO LA/VTU COUNTIES.

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER AND SURFACE SUPPORT WEAKEN FRIDAY. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY BUT
AFTER THE WINDS DIE DOWN IN THE MORNING THEY WILL LIKELY ONLY RETURN
TO ADVISORY LEVELS NOT WARNINGS. THKNS ALSO DROPS A LITTLE AS WELL
SO LOOK FOR A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE SBA
SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL SEE A LARGE DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

A LITTLE TROF ZIPS THROUGH THE PAC NW OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL NOT
AFFECT THE WEATHER MUCH EXCEPT THAT ON SATURDAY THE TROF WILL KNOCK
HGTS DOWN AND COOL THINGS DOWN SOME. NW FLOW ALOFT AND NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENTS STILL EXIST SO THERE WILL BE SOME BREEZES JUST
MUCH WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY.

THEN SUNDAY A LITTLE RIDGE POPS UP BEHIND THE TROF AND THIS WILL
RISE TEMPS BACK UP BUT REALLY NOT TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...
GFS HAS COME AROUND TO ECS THINKING FOR THE LONG TERM. FORECAST
STILL CALLS FOR CYCLONIC FLOW TO MOVE OVER THE AREA BUT NOW IT IS
FORECAST TO BE MUCH WEAKER AND THERE WILL BE LESS MARINE LAYER AND
WARMER TEMPS. NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE REAL MARINE LAYER WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL TUE OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...07/1800Z.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AREA
WILL PERSIST WHILE MODERATE UPPER LEVEL WEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE
AREA. A STRONG NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL
PERSIST. THE MARINE LAYER WAS BELOW 1KFT AND DEPTH WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KLAX...IT IS LIKELY LLWS 36020KT WILL DEVELOP AFTER 08/02Z AND
PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS...OTHERWISE THERE IS A CHANCE 1/2SM FOG
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 08/13Z AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CLEAR SKIES BELOW 12KFT WILL PERSIST AND
LIKELY LLWS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...KITTELL/RORKE
AVIATION...30

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
908 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2009

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-071300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
908 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TONIGHT

STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL CREATE MULTITUDE OF HAZARDS
TODAY. DRIVERS OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES WILL NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS FOR
SUDDEN WIND GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE DESERTS...AND THE SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST. THE STRONG WINDS AND LOWERING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND MOUNTAINS WILL
CREATE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AS WELL. ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDS FOR BOATERS. A
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK EXISTS OVER THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST DUE TO A
MIXED SOUTH AND NORTHWEST SWELL.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* RED FLAG WARNING...........SEE WWUS86 KLOX - RFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THROUGH FRIDAY...DRIVERS OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES WILL NEED TO BE
CAUTIOUS FOR SUDDEN WIND GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE DESERTS...THE
CENTRAL COAST...AND THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. THE COMBINATION
OF THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDS FOR BOATERS. OTHERWISE...HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* RED FLAG WARNING...........SEE WWUS86 KLOX - RFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

HALL