Freeze Warning 2, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1155 PM PDT TUE OCT 27 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY STRONG NORTHERLY JET CONTINUES TO BRING POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
NORTHERLY WINDS TO OUR AREA TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ALONG WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO LAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
THE WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONG AS EXPECTED ACROSS MANY PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SEVERAL REPORTS OF DAMAGE
ACROSS THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AND A FEW REPORTS IN LA COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. THERE WERE SEVERAL WIND GUSTS
STRONGER THAN 58 MPH ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST WIND GUST RECORDED JUST OCCURRED AT WARM
SPRINGS JUST ABOVE LAKE CASTAIC WITH A GUST OF 71 MPH. WITH THE BEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION SET TO OCCUR THIS EVENING THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STRONG ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS.
THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY AND LA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS HAVE ALSO SEEN
VERY STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH THIS EVENING. THERE HAVE
BEEN SEVERAL SPOTTER REPORTS OF THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND THE
BLOWING ASH ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO
A FEW MILES IN SOME AREAS NEAR LA CRESCENTA TO PASADENA.

A SURF ADVISORY WAS ISSUED DUE TO THE STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. SOME REPORTS OF BREAKERS OF 9 FEET
WERE REPORTED IN VENTURA COUNTY EARLIER. WAVES SHOULD DIMINISH BY
EARL MORNING HOURS AS GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE
TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AS THE UPPER LVL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NEVADA/UTAH TOWARDS NRN AZ THIS
EVENING. THE STRONG JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW
TO MOVE EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS UTAH
OVERNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS 165 KT JET STREAK OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE BEST THERMAL PACKING OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THEN THE VALLEYS...AND
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT...THE STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO POUND THE AREA OVERNIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS.

BY WED MORNING...THE COLD UPPER LOW (539DM) WILL BE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD NORTHERLY GRADIENTS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE STRONGEST PART OF THE JET OVER SE CAL.
HOWEVER THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A 100-120 KT JET OVER THE REGION.
WITH THE BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED
EARLIER...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH SOME ACROSS THE AREA ON
WED. TEMPS SHOULD LOWER BETWEEN 4 TO 8 DEGREES TOMORROW WITH THE
COOLER AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 50S ACROSS ANTELOPE
VALLEY WITH MOST COASTAL AND VALLEYS REACHING THE 60S. BY WED
EVENING WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE.

THANKS TO ALL THE SPOTTERS WHO HAVE SENT IN VALUABLE WIND AND DAMAGE
REPORTS THIS EVENING.

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

 WINDS WILL STILL BE A CONCERN WED NIGHT INTO THU...AS THE SHARP
OFFSHORE TREND MAY BRING ON THE NEED FOR SOME WIND ADVISORIES IN THE
MTNS AND VLYS...BUT NOTHING NEAR WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY. LOWS WILL
BE VERY CHILLY IN ADDITION...WITH SOME VALLEYS GETTING INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND 30S BY WED NIGHT.

THE DEEP LOW WILL FINALLY DEPART THE SOUTHWEST ON THU...ALLOWING THE
STRONG HIGH OFF THE COAST TO START NUDGING TOWARD THE COAST. ALONG
WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS...THU SHOULD SEE A HEALTHY DOSE OF WARMING.
FRI LOOKS EVEN WARMER AS THE HIGH PUSHES CLOSER. TEMPS SHOULD BE
RIGHT ABOUT ON PAR WITH NORMAL ON FRI...WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING. THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO STAY AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BATTERED INVERSION FROM TODAYS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND THE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADS PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE HIGH OFF THE CA COAST WEAKENS SOME ON SAT AS A DEEP BUT SMALL
LOW SKIRTS THROUGH THE PAC NORTHWEST. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING THE ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH...AND ALTHOUGH THIS FLATTENS
OUR HIGH OFF THE COAST A LITTLE...IT DOES SQUIRT IT EVEN CLOSER TO
THE COAST SAT THROUGH MON. WITH CONTINUED WEAK OFFSHORE GRADS...THE
WEEKEND INTO MON LOOKS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS-WISE...PUTTING TODAY AND
WED INTO THE DISTANCE MEMORY BOX. TUE COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER AS
MODELS HINT AT A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH FORMING SOUTH OF
ALASKA...WHICH WOULD PUSH OUR HIGH TO THE EAST. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
AND WHEN THIS ACTUALLY HAPPENS.

THE MARINE LAYER IS BOUND TO RETURN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK...THOUGH WE
ARE STARTING TO GET INTO THE MARINE LAYER-LESS SEASON OF THE YEAR.
WITH THE CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW...SHOULD STAY CLEAR OVER MOST OF
THE AREA. CANNOT DISCOUNT ANY OF THE COASTAL AREAS FROM SEEING A
RANDOM PATCH OF STRATUS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE WEEKEND WHEN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TRIES TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0600Z.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROBLEMATIC AT SOME AIRFIELDS OVERNIGHT.
CROSSWINDS SHOULD STILL POSE A THREAT AT KLAX AND KLGB THROUGH AT
LEAST 10Z...AND EXPECT MOD-SVR LLWS AND UDDF AT KSBA...KVNY...
KBUR...KLAX...AND KLGB THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO RELAX BY
12Z THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHERLY CROSSWINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 09-10Z...THEN WEAKEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SEABREEZE TO KICK IN BY
19Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE CURRENT TAF. WITH THE OFFSHORE WINDS...MDT
ISOLD SVR TURBULENCE WITH LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 09 OR 10Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/KITTELL
AVIATION...MEIER
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
554 PM PDT TUE OCT 27 2009

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-281300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
546 PM PDT TUE OCT 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TONIGHT

STRONG...AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTH COAST OF SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY...THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY...THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...THE STRONG WINDS WILL
PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND WHICH WILL PRODUCE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. THE STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT
THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH A LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE COASTAL
WATERS. AS THE NORTH WINDS CONTINUE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE TEENS. SO...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA...VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNT AS WELL AS THE SOUTH COAST OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND
THE SAN FERNANDO AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEYS.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* RED FLAG WARNING...........SEE WWUS86 KLOX - RFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG...AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTH COAST OF
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY...THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...THE
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND
WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES.THE STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS.AS THE NORTH WINDS CONTINUE...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE TEENS. SO...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA
BARBARA...VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY AS WELL AS THE SOUTH COAST
OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE SAN FERNANDO AND SANTA CLARITA
VALLEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A COLD AIR MASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 20 AND 28 DEGREES IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THESE
CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* RED FLAG WARNING...........SEE WWUS86 KLOX - RFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FREEZE WATCH...............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

HALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
931 PM PDT TUE OCT 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 7 NW CASTAIC LAKE       34.72N 118.79W
10/27/2009  M76 MPH          LOS ANGELES        CA   MESONET

            RAWS SITE AT WHITAKER PEAK RECORDED A GUST OF 76 MPH.

&&

KAPLAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
956 PM PDT TUE OCT 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0937 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 7 NW CASTAIC LAKE       34.72N 118.79W
10/27/2009  M81 MPH          LOS ANGELES        CA   MESONET

&&

KAPLAN