Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
210 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...12Z NAM/GFS CAME IN SINGING
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME TUNE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS A TOUCH
FASTER PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY. SO...THE DISTRICT CAN
BRACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND AND PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

FIRST FOR THE WINDS. 30 AGL WINDS ON BOTH MODELS RANGE BETWEEN
30 AND 55 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SO...
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SIGNIFICANT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. AT
THIS TIME...WILL EXPECT WARNING LEVEL WINDS ACROSS SLO/SBA COUNTIES
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SO...HAVE UPGRADED HIGH WIND WATCHES
TO WARNINGS FOR THOSE ZONES. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...EXPECT
WARNING LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE VTU/LAX MOUNTAINS. THESE WARNING LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE HANDLED BY WINTER STORM WARNING. FOR THE SANTA MONICA
MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...WILL ALSO GO WITH HIGH
WIND WARNINGS AS THOSE AREAS ARE ELEVATED ENOUGH TO RECEIVE FULL
BRUNT OF SOUTHEAST WINDS. FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...
WILL ISSUE STRONG WIND ADVISORIES.

AS FOR PRECIP...THIS SYSTEM HAS ALL THE INGREDIENTS TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA...INCLUDING STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND GOOD JET DYNAMICS. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS OF 1-3 INCHES
FOR COASTS/VALLEYS...AND 2-5 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS LOOKS
FINE AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORE FAVORED SOUTH-FACING SLOPES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH THE JET
DYNAMICS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON ZONE PACKAGE. WITH SUCH RAINFALL POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN FOR ALL AREAS...NOT JUST BURN AREAS.
SO...WILL ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL AREAS...BUT INTERIOR
SLO/SBA VALLEYS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL DROP TO BETWEEN
3500 AND 4000 FEET MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS...WINTER
STORM WARNINGS WILL REMAIN FOR THE SBA/VTU/LAX COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE COMBO OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP
A SHOWER THREAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND A
FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...12Z ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPS
ACTUALLY AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. WITH THE
RIDGE BREAKING DOWN...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE TAIL END OF A
WEAK FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS SLO/SBA COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
POSSIBILITY IS LOW. SO...FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WILL INDICATE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES...AND KEEP VTU/LAX
COUNTIES DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1800Z

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL
PREVAIL. FREEZING LEVEL WAS AROUND 8KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL
DESCEND APPROXIMATELY 3KFT MIDDAY MONDAY. A WEAK TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME STRONG IN THE EVENING AND
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

KLAX...IT IS VERY LIKELY MID/UPPER LEVEL CIGS WILL DESCEND TO 030
AROUND 10Z AND CONTINUE TO DESCEND TO 015 THROUGH 16/19Z. IT IS VERY
LIKELY MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 16/19Z.

KBUR...IT IS VERY LIKELY MID/UPPER LEVEL CIGS WILL DESCEND TO 025
AND MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 10Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...30

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
136 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1214 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 SE PISMO BEACH        35.07N 120.58W
02/15/2009                   SAN LUIS OBISPO    CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE AND POWER LINES DOWN IN ARROYO GRANDE.

&&

HALL