Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Chicago, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
252 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...
250 PM CDT

ONCE AGAIN NEAR TERM OF FCST BASED ON LATEST SATLT TRENDS. VIS
IMAGERY VERY HELPFUL IN LAYING OUT POPS/WX GRIDS WITH CONVERGENCE
BEING ENHANCED DOWNWIND OF S TIP OF LK MI. THIS HAS ALLOWED NARROW
PLUME OF TSTMS TO DVLP FROM S AND E OF GARY...ACROSS NRN LAKE AND
PORTER COUNTIES...TO NR SBN. HOWEVER...MAIN FOCUS FOR DEEP
CONVECTION TO RE DEVELOP IS LINING UP ALONG BOUNDARY LEFT FROM
TSTMS EARLIER TODAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIP OVER SRN PORTION OF FA HAVE
LEFT A RESIDUAL COLD POOL. AS A RESULT...STRONGER STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FIRE ON SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS STABLE AREA...OVER
CNTRL IL THROUGH THIS EVENING RUFLY FROM UIN-CMI. HAVE KEPT
CHC/SLGT CHC POPS IN AS FAR N AS I-80 CORRIDOR THOUGH FOR EARLY
THIS EVENING AS AIR MASS REMAINS RATHER UNSTABLE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT NOW ANALYZED FROM WRN LWR MI SWWD ACROSS
CHICAGO...TO NR BRL. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED...BEST FORCING FOR
CONVECTION ALREADY OVER NWRN INDIANA AND FROM CNTRL IL INTO NERN
INDIANA.

TRANQUIL DAY WED AS SFC HIGH SETTLES ACROSS AREA. ONLY CHALLENGE
IS WITH MAX TEMPS. HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO ABV MOS MOST AREAS
GIVEN AMPLE LATE JULY SUNSHINE. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVR NERN
IL/NWRN IN WHERE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL BE N TO NELY ALLOWING
FOR HIGHS LOWER NEAR THE LAKE.

LTL CHG TO REMAINDER OF FCST AS PARADE OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUES
WITH REGULARITY. NEXT SHORT WAVE/WIND MAX ALREADY DIGGING SWD
ACROSS ALBERTA BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE TO NRN PLAINS STATES BY LATE ED...THEN CONTINUE EWD ACROSS
UPR GRTLKS REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WAVE IS STILL FCST TO REMAIN
QUITE VIGOROUS AS IT PASSES N OF REGION...SENDING ASSD COLD FRONT
ACROSS FA THURSDAY AFTN-ERLY EVENING. WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING.
LOOKS LIKE DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST
SOME SCT TSTMS ALONG/AHEAD OF BOUNDARY GIVEN MODEST AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY IN PRE FRONTAL AIR MASS...HOWEVER...BEST LLVL FORCING
EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG OLD BOUNDARY PRODUCED BY THIS
EVENING/S FRONT AS IT STALLS OUT FROM SRN PLAINS TO S OF OH VLY.
THIS PRECLUDES GOING WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN CHC POPS OVR OUR AREA
FOR NOW.

AS THIS SYS PROGRESSES EWD...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD
ACROSS MID MS VLY...PROVIDING FAIR WX FRIDAY-FRI NIGHT WITH VERY
COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND LOW DEW POINTS.

LARGE CLOSED LOW THEN FCST WITH REASONABLE CONSISTENCY BY GFS TO
DIG SEWD FROM CNTRL CANADA TO UPPR GRTLKS BY SUNDAY. THIS SUGGESTS
A REPEAT OF LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK...WITH WARMING AND
DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING SAT...LLVL MOIST INFLUX SAT NIGHT AND
COLD FROPA ON SUNDAY...ASSD WITH INCREASING CHCS OF TSTMS SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS UPR SYS IS ADVERTIZED TO BE MUCH LARGER
IN SCALE THAN ITS PREDECESSORS...SO HAVE OPTED TO GO DRY THROUGH
EXTENDED AS PER GFS. CONCUR WITH EARLIER CHAT WITH MKX AND WILL
KEEP POPS BELOW MENTION DAYS 6.5 AND 7.

MERZLOCK

&&

.AVIATION...

1800 UTC TAFS...WEAK AND DIFFUSE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS ERN IOWA AND NWRN IL.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE WIND DIRECTION.  LATEST
OBS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT IS MOVING THRU THE RFD AREA AS WINDS
VEERED WNWLY EARLIER THIS MORNING AND SHOULD DO SO AT THE OTHER
SITES BY ISSUANCE TIME. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE FRONTAL TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NELY OVERNIGHT.

WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING OVER NRN IL AND...EVENTUALLY...NWRN
IN...STILL SEE LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN AT THE TERMINALS.
FRONTAL FORCING...WEAK AS IT IS...WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...AND WHILE STILL EXPECT A MODEST SHORT WAVE TO CROSS THE
REGION...IT SHOULD ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
INVOF THE FRONT RATHER THAN INITIATE AND SGFNT ACTIVITY TO THE
NORTH.

OTHERWISE...CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KREIN

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM CDT

A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
FROM SWLY TO NWLY. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER WEAK...SO DO NOT EXPECT WINDS
GREATER THAN 10-15 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING WHEN ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE LAKE. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY.

KREIN

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
311 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
292015-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
311 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009 /411 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A
  COLD FRONT. AT 300 PM CDT...THIS FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTH
  SIDE OF CHICAGO...SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OTTAWA AREA...TO NEAR
  BURLINGTON IOWA. AREAS ALREADY BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE ALL CLEAR.
  AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF A
  THUNDERSTORM YET THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHWEST
  INDIANA INTO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
  TONIGHT OVER FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI MOVES
  EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT.

  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW OF THE HEAVIER
  STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...AND AGAIN SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ740>745-292015-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
311 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...AND AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-292015-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TOW RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
311 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...AND AGAIN SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

MERZLOCK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
339 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             1 E PAXTON              40.46N 88.08W
07/28/2009  E0.50 INCH       FORD               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL ON THE EAST SIDE OF PAXTON.
            WINDS ESTIMATED TO 35 MPH.

&&

BOXELL