Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
710 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2009

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...

...TORNADO WATCH FOR CENTRAL KY AND MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA
TILL 1AM EDT...MIDNIGHT CDT...

SEVERE CONVECTION STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. 1830Z RADAR SHOWS GARDEN VARIETY T-STORMS ABOUT TO ENTER
OUR FAR NW FORECAST AREA (FA). HOWEVER...AS T-STORMS ADVANCE
EASTWARD...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD
FRONT AND 80 TO 90 KT MID LEVEL JET DRAWS NEARER. THE MAIN THREATS
STILL LOOK TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER A FEW
TORNADOES CAN/T BE RULED OUT AS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE SURFACED
BASED THIS AFTERNOON. AN AXIS OF UPPER 50S/LOW 60S DEWPTS
ADVECTING INTO THE FA FROM WESTERN KY WILL HELP INCREASE THE MIXED
LAYER FURTHER TOWARD THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE SEVERE WORDING IN
ZONES.

THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER WEST CENTRAL IL DOWN TO AROUND HOUSTON TEXAS WILL MOVE
EAST CROSSING OUR AREA BETWEEN 22Z TO 4Z THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE
FRONT...T-STORMS WILL SUBSIDE. A QUICK DRY SLOT WILL GIVE US A
BREAK IN PRECIP AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING.
THEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING DOWN BEHIND THE UPPER CLOSED LOW
BRINGING IN LIGHT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE AREA AROUND OR
BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING.

AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WNW EARLY MONDAY...STRONG CAA WILL CHANGE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO A RA/SN MIX BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS AND SUCH WARM GROUNDS...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOW TO STICK TO THE GROUND MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY WILL
DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE WINTER WITH SNOW FLAKES FLYING...TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S FOR HIGHS...AND COLD WINDS
GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

...WINTER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN...

MONDAY NIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CROSSING EASTERN NEW
YORK WHILE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
GREAT PLAINS. WE WILL BE CAUGHT IN BETWEEN WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND
THE NORTHEAST LOW AND DUMP INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
MONDAY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE UP TO AN INCH OF WET SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN GRASSY AREAS OF THE BLUE GRASS AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR EASTERN CWFA.

WNW WINDS MONDAY NIGHT OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS
LOW AS 20 DEGREES AS AIR TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL HOLD OFF
ON A FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW SINCE WE HAVE SEVERE WEATHER TO CONTEND
WITH FIRST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MID SHIFT TONIGHT CAN
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZE WATCH FOR TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...AND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THERE SHOULDN/T BE MUCH
LEFT OTHER THAN STRAY FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. IT WILL STILL BE A
CHILLY CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE WEEK. THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SCOUR OUT AS THE
NORTHEASTERN STORM LIFTS WELL OFF INTO CANADA. CIRRUS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CWFA...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
A COOLER GROUND TEMPERATURE IT LOOKS LIKE JUST ABOUT EVERYBODY
SHOULD SEE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S BY THE TIME THE SUN COMES UP
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER IN THE USUAL SHELTERED COLD SPOTS.

BY THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE OZARKS WITH A WARM FRONT
REACHING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BY AFTERNOON HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE FRONT.

NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE PLEASANT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BRINGS US PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE
GFS DOES TRY TO BRING A STORM SYSTEM IN FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THAT BUT WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE FIRST 3-6HRS OF
THE TAF PERIOD. BWG SHOULD SEE STORMS ENDING BY 02Z...SDF BY 04Z AND
LEX BY 06Z.  MVFR AND IFR CIGS/VIS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG
WITH VARIABLE WIND GUSTS OVER 40KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THE
STRONGEST OF STORMS.

A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
THROUGH BUT SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION ONCE AGAIN AFTER 10Z.  SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW AT
TIMES AFTER 15Z MONDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN AND NEAR
ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AML
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....MACZKO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
850 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2009

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-061945-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
850 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2009 /750 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ESPECIALLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. IN ADDITION TO DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY 10
PM EDT..9 PM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE PRIMARY CONCERN OF THIS
COLD SPELL IS FOR TENDER VEGETATION AND ANY YOUNG LIVESTOCK EXPOSED
TO THE ELEMENTS. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS
WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING IN MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS...AND MAY FALL
AS FAR AS THE MID 20S IN SOME LOW-LYING AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE AREA FROM MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO RELATIVELY
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. UP TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE BLUE
GRASS AND ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...PRIMARILY MONDAY NIGHT IN GRASSY AREAS.

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND ANY
FUNNEL CLOUDS OR TORNADOES THIS EVENING.

AML/13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
749 PM EDT SUN APR 05 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     HAIL             PLANO                   36.88N  86.42W
04/05/2009  E0.88 INCH       WARREN             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900341

MRC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
847 PM EDT SUN APR 05 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 PM     HAIL             3 NW GRADYVILLE         37.11N  85.46W
04/05/2009  E1.00 INCH       ADAIR              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900343

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
848 PM EDT SUN APR 05 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             GRAVEL SWITCH           37.58N  85.05W
04/05/2009  E0.75 INCH       MARION             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900344

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
850 PM EDT SUN APR 05 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     HAIL             5 W DANVILLE            37.64N  84.86W
04/05/2009  E0.70 INCH       BOYLE              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900345

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
852 PM EDT SUN APR 05 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 PM     HAIL             DANVILLE                37.64N  84.77W
04/05/2009  E0.88 INCH       BOYLE              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900346

MRC