Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
915 AM EST WED FEB 18 2009

.UPDATE...

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST. RATHER SOLID AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
FORMED EARLIER OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE
ESE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
UPPED MORNING POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN THE AREAS THAT ARE TO BE
AFFECTED BY THIS AREA OF RAIN.

ALSO...REDUCED MORNING POPS IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE RAIN WILL MISS
AND PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ARE SLIMMER. KEPT POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY IN THE SOUTH.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

MASS OF WARM-AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE FORMED WITHIN THE
MASS...PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL NEAR BOWLING GREEN. ONE STORM THAT
PRODUCED NICKEL HAIL NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER MOVED ACROSS LOGAN AND
SIMPSON BUT HAS SINCE WANED. EVERYTHING NOW IS BEHAVING...WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS...AND LOTS OF LIGHTNING. GUSTY
WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING...WITH PEAKS AROUND 40-45 MPH. BUT RECENT
ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW NICE CAPPING AT 800MB...SO ANY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS MIXING DOWN SHOULD NOT OCCUR. THROUGH SUNRISE...ANY STRONG
STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA AND MARBLE SIZE HAIL.

THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ALL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER NW MISSOURI. THIS LOW WILL PUSH TOWARDS NE
INDIANA TODAY...WHICH WILL ALSO PUSH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST
OF THE CWA MOSTLY BY 18Z. THEN THE COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW WILL PASS
THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN ROUGHLY 21Z AND 03Z. THE NMM-WRF HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON CURRENT PRECIP...AND THAT MODEL SHOWS MORE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER OUR ERN CWA ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ASSUMING THE CAP
ALOFT CAN BREAK THIS AFTERNOON...WILL GO WITH THIS MODEL SOLUTION
AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. DESPITE
CLOUDS AND PRECIP...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE MID 50S N TO THE MID 60S S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH BEING POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW/FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S. RESIDUAL WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL AFFECT
MAINLY OUR NERN CWA OVERNIGHT...WHERE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN BLUEGRASS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS DAWN THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

NOT TOO MANY CHANGES REQUIRED THROUGH THE EXTENDED THIS MORNING.
MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE MOVING OUT PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW
ON SATURDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD COULD ALSO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK PULLING SURFACE LOW INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA WILL USHER IN HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE AND LINGERING
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WITH SOME
FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KY AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS SET IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 30S ON THURSDAY AND
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS BY
FRIDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AND SOME LOW LEVEL WAA
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW LATE FRIDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
65 WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING AND
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT ACCUMULATION FRIDAY
NIGHT TO BE AROUND A HALF INCH IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY ON SATURDAY WHEN A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND A DRY SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN A HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF KY. AS UPPER LOW AND
SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS NORTH OH AND UP THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COUPLED WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 75
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL START OUT IN THE
UPPER 20S AND CLIMB TO THE MID 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A
FEW DEGREES COLDER DESPITE LESS CLOUD COVER AS DEEP TROUGH TO THE
EAST AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO SEEP
SOUTHWARD. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ON SUNDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING WAA TO SET UP WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN STREAMING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MIDDAY AS ANOTHER COOL FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE 40S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...

SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT LEX AND MAYBE
BWG THROUGH 13-14Z THIS MORNING BEFORE ALL RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FOR BWG AND
SDF...MAYBE LONGER AT LEX. UNDER THE CLOUDY SKIES...WINDS OUT OF THE
SSW WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS GENERALLY. IF THE SUN CAN COME OUR OR A
FEW CLOUDS CAN CLEAR BY 18Z...THEN GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON COULD REACH
30 KTS OR PERHAPS MORE IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...MORE SHRA AND TS COULD FORM ALONG IT
BUT THINK THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS WOULD BE FOR LEX ONLY...AND
PERHAPS JUST A FEW SHOWERS WOULD AFFECT SDF OR BWG TO A LESSER
EXTENT. WITH THE FROPA...AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR LEX...MOSTLY SDF TOO...AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT BWG. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WNW BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WILL BE GUSTY...UP TO 20-25KTS GENERALLY.

&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE

UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...AL
LONG TERM....LMS
AVIATION.....AL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
655 AM EST WED FEB 18 2009

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-181700-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...
JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
655 AM EST WED FEB 18 2009 /555 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009/

...GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO 30 AND 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE WIND
GUSTS WILL CAUSE DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES ON EAST TO WEST ROADWAYS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL STILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 30
MPH...BUT OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST INSTEAD.

USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING TODAY AND BE PREPARED FOR SUDDEN WIND
GUSTS.

AL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1046 AM EST WED FEB 18 2009

KYZ070-072-181630-
LOGAN-SIMPSON-
946 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009

...SMALL LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT LOGAN AND SIMPSON
COUNTIES...

AT 942 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ELKTON TO 13 MILES WEST OF GUTHRIE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

HEAVY RAIN...PEA SIZED HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PENNY SIZED HAIL OCCURRED WITH THESE STORMS IN CHRISTIAN COUNTY.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR RUSSELLVILLE BY 955 AM CST.

THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE...
  NEAR ALLENSVILLE BY 1000 AM CST.
  NEAR AUBURN BY 1005 AM CST.
  NEAR DOT BY 1010 AM CST.
  NEAR CORINTH BY 1020 AM CST.
  NEAR PRICES MILL BY 1025 AM CST.

EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN
AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

13