Severe Thunderstorm Warning 270, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
400 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY & TONIGHT)...

ACTIVE WEATHER CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
RECENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE POOLING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WITH SFC BASED INSTABILITY ADVECTING NORTHWARD IN THE I-65
CORRIDOR.  LMK 4KM WRF AND RUC SOLUTIONS HAVE CAPTURED THIS WELL IN
THEIR RESPECTIVE RUNS.  AS CONVECTION MOVED INTO THIS AREA OF
INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY IN
THE LAST 30 MINUTES...WITH A NUMBER OF WARNINGS BEING ISSUED.  BASED
ON CURRENT ANALYSIS...FEEL THAT HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE ACROSS CENTRAL KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY IN THE I-65
CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO
POOL OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE.  MAIN THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.  HEAVIEST RAINFALL THUS
FAR HAS BEEN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.  NUMEROUS FLOOD
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS...WITH REPORTS STILL COMING
IN OF WATER OVER ROADS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...SFC COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD.  CURRENT SQUALL LINE SHOULD
MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO
EAST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY TOWARDS DAWN.  SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SEEMS REASONABLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST.
AGAIN...KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE SUGGESTIVE OF
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH SHEAR...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
STILL A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY.  FOR NOW...WILL KEEP HIGH POPS GOING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO LEAVE
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH INTACT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SVR CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL...GRADIENT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 15-20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH GUSTS OF 25
TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC AS WELL...AND WILL LIKELY BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY
WHERE CONVECTION SETS UP.  HIGHEST READINGS WILL BE IN THE EAST WITH
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS THAT DO NOT GET RAIN
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SEEM REASONABLE
ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST.
WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE
EAST EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK POPS AFTER
10/06Z.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FCST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS SOUTHEAST RIDGE HOLDS STRONG OFF THE S.E. U.S. COAST.
SFC RIDGE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY ALLOWING
MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO DROP BACK INTO THE REGION.  CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH MORE CLOUDS
EXPECTED IN THE EAST THAN THE WEST.  GENERALLY STUCK WITH THE RAW
MODEL TEMPS HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE EAST WITH AROUND
60 IN THE WEST.  CLEARING SKIES SAT NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER
READINGS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTH AND MID 40S IN THE
SOUTH.  500MB HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE SLIGHTLY AS NEXT WAVE
DROPS INTO THE PLAINS.  SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND PLEASANT
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN IN
WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS KY.  ANOTHER ROUND OF COOL TEMPS IS LIKELY FOR
SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT OF SPREAD HERE
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH RIDING BACK AS A WARM FRONT.
09/00Z GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS SUGGEST CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  SO HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING THESE
PERIODS...BUT WILL LEAVE THE NORTHERN HALF DRY AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH...WITH LOWER 60S POSSIBLE DOWN ALONG THE
KY/TN BORDER AREA.  WITH THE FRONT PUSHING NORTHWARD MONDAY
NIGHT...SEEMS THAT THE PREVIOUS COOL READINGS FCST FOR TUE
MORNING...MAY NOT OCCUR.  FOR NOW...HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS UPWARDS...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN FUTURE
FCSTS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

DID NOT MAKE ANY REAL CHANGES TO THE FCST DURING THIS PD...GIVEN THE
ACTIVE WEATHER THIS MORNING.  PREVIOUS FCST WAS LEFT GENERALLY
INTACT...WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON 09/00Z GFS AND
EURO TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES FROM SOUTHERN IL SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX REGION. LINE OF CELLULAR SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LINE. HAVE TIMED NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AS THE CELLS MOVE THROUGH WITH GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.
GRADIENT IS TIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...SO BETWEEN THE CELLS EXPECT
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AS
WELL...AND IS BRINGING SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. HAD SEVERAL PILOT
REPORTS OF LLWS FROM PILOTS NEAR KSDF AS THE LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS
MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINAL. EXPECT THE SHEAR TO CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN...SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP AND THE JET WILL
START EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.

FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KSDF BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN KLEX AND
KBWG THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CONTINUED MVFR CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AND HAVE IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD OF THE TAFS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ030>032.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

SHORT TERM........MJ
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........RJS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
324 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

KYZ025-028-029-090815-
BULLITT-HARDIN-MEADE-
324 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING MEADE...HARDIN AND BULLITT
COUNTIES...

AT 323 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BRANDENBURG...OR 30 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LOUISVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR WEST POINT AROUND 340 AM EDT.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
114 AND 94.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

EES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
345 AM EDT FRI OCT 09 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LEAVENWORTH             38.20N  86.35W
10/09/2009                   CRAWFORD           IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SR 66 IMPASSABLE AT SR 62. DEBRIS COVERING ROADWAY. BOX
            TRAILER FLOATED INTO THE ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900167

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
347 AM EDT FRI OCT 09 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DEPAUW                  38.33N  86.22W
10/09/2009                   HARRISON           IN   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            3 TO 4 FEET OF WATER FLOWING OVER SR 64 AT
            FREDRICKSBURG RD. NUMEROUS OTHER ROADS IMPASSABLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900168

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
401 AM EDT FRI OCT 09 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MARENGO                 38.37N  86.34W
10/09/2009                   CRAWFORD           IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WHISKEY RUN CREEK OVERFLOWING ITS BANKS AND CAUSING
            EVACUATIONS BY BOAT NEAR MARENGO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900169

FOSTER

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