Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...

CURRENTLY...A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED VERY NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER. THIS WILL BE ONE FOCUS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ANOTHER FOCUS AREA WILL BE AHEAD OF/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
S-CNTRL KY WHERE CURRENT AND FUTURE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
OCCURRING/WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

A WEAK SFC LOW NEAR PAH WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS COMBINED
WITH THE MCV OVER NW ARKANSAS AND UPPER LEVEL NWRLY JET WILL
CONTINUE TO SPARK SHOWERS AND STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR CWA
ANYWHERE SOUTH OF THE FRONT BUT MAINLY ACROSS S-CNTRL KY. LARGE HAIL
AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...AS WELL AS
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN SOME OVERNIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS MORE FORCING APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER
LEVELS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANY STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO AN AREA OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING...MOVING
EASTWARD AS IT DOES SO. HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS OVERNIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...TEMPS TRICKY AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL GO MID 60S FOR HIGHS...AND
THINKING THAT NWRN/WRN HALF OF THE CWA WILL CLEAR OUT AND LOW 70S
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR POPS...HAVE SHRS/EMBEDDED
STRMS TAPERING FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

UPPER AIR PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE PACIFIC
COAST THAT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A CUTOFF LOW MOVES
ONSHORE ACROSS CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. BY LATE SUNDAY...THE CUTOFF LOW WILL HAVE EVOLVED INTO
A TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AS WELL.

AT THE SURFACE BY FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF STATES...EXTENDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SAGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY...ANY
LINGERING RAIN WILL END ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY EARLY
FRIDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE AS
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

EXPECT SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY COOL MORNINGS
AND LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. EXPECT A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TO LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST THIS SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY TUESDAY...SWINGING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE MONDAY EVENING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. LIKE YESTERDAY...HIGHS MAY
APPROACH 90 DEGREES.

THE GFS FORECASTS THIS BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS KENTUCKY
TUESDAY AND HANG UP WEDNESDAY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF AT LEAST A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST NORTH OR RIGHT ON SDF CURRENTLY
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR
BWG MAINLY...SHRA/TSRA SHOULD ERUPT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING
SCATTERED TS THROUGH 23Z...AND WIDESPREAD TSRA MOST LIKELY BETWEEN
23Z-04Z. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STORM AFFECTING BWG
THROUGH 06Z THURS.

FURTHER NORTH...SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH
WILL MAINLY AFFECT SDF AND LEX. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 23Z...AND THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHRA WITH VCTS THEREAFTER. WITH
ANY STORMS...IFR VSBYS AND LOW MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 03Z FOR SDF/LEX AND AFTER 09Z FOR
BWG...MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON WITH 2-4SM VSBYS FROM RA/BR. WINDS
WILL TURN NERLY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD. SDF WILL BE THE FIRST
TO CLEAR OUT THRS...MOST LIKELY AFTER 16Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

SHORT TERM...AL
LONG TERM....JSD
AVIATION.....AL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
418 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2009

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-040830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
418 PM EDT (318 PM CDT) WED JUN 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WHERE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM EDT. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING
WINDS. IN ADDITION...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY.

ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH OF STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AFTER
DARK...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

AL

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