Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
341 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THE MCS CURRENTLY
OVER OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
(FA) THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT
STANDS NOW WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMMA HEAD
OF THE MCS...AND FLASH FLOODING/RIVER FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS
WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR MORE OF A SEVERE
THREAT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MCS ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS NOT
HAD FAVORABLE EVOLUTION OVER THE LAST HOUR. SEVERE WATCH 268 FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
0Z AS THE SYSTEM PASSES.

AS FOR THE FLOODING THREAT...HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AREA TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FA. BASED ON RADAR ESTIMATES UPSTREAM
FROM PAH...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH
WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OVER MOST LOCATIONS
IN OUR FA. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL KY
WHICH HAS HAD THE MOST RAINFALL OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...OVER NORTH CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO AS A DOUBLE SHOT OF RAIN FROM THE
LEADING EDGE OF MCS AND COMMA HEAD WILL PASS OVER THIS AREA.

ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AFTER
THE COMMA HEAD PASSES...HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
2AM TO 4AM EDT.

TOMORROW PRECIP WILL LIGHTEN IN INTENSITY AND GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
EARLY IN THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO DRY OUT AS A THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER
SOUTHERN TN AND NORTHERN NS/AL/GA. A WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...MODELS OVER THE
LAST FEW RUNS ARE HINTING AT SHOWERS MAKING IT UP INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS IS SUPPORTED AS
WELL BY ENSEMBLES. THEREFORE HAVE INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THIS TIME FRAME...MAINLY FOR SOUTH OF THE BLUEGRASS PARKWAY. AFTER
THIS...THE GFS IS HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE EUROPEAN OR ENSEMBLES
SO HAVE LEFT THE CURRENTLY DRY FORECAST GOING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AREAWIDE. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BE ON TAP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
WARMING BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP
OVER CANADA AND SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

MAIN TAF CONCERN WILL BE AN MCS OVER WESTERN KY/SW INDIANA TO MAKE
IT/S WAY INTO THE TAF SITES HERE THIS AFTERNOON STARTING AROUND 20Z
AT BWG.  HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF
SITES HIGHLIGHTING THE T-STORM THREAT WITH HIGH WINDS BEING OF
GREATEST CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH HAIL AND AN ISLD
TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WILL MAKE TAF AMENDS WITH MORE
DETAILED WIND THREAT AS STORMS DRAW NEAR. SOME ISLD T-STORMS MAY
AFFECT THE TAF SITES BEFORE THE MAIN COMPLEX SO HAVE INDICATED THAT
WITH VCTS IN THE TAFS.

OVERNIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM THE
REMNANTS OF THE MCS AS WELL AS CONTINUED MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM SSW TO W BY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KYZ023>043-
     045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR INZ076>079-083-
     084-089>092.

&&

SHORT TERM...AML
LONG TERM....EES
AVIATION.....AML

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
312 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 PM     HAIL             HOWE VALLEY             37.68N  86.08W
05/08/2009  E0.70 INCH       HARDIN             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900414

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     HAIL             VALLEY STATION          38.10N  85.86W
05/08/2009  E0.70 INCH       JEFFERSON          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900415

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
340 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W FORDSVILLE          37.64N  86.75W
05/08/2009  E4.50 INCH       OHIO               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4.5 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900416

FOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
341 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-082145-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...
JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
341 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009 /241 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009/

...VERY HEAVY RAINS IN STORE FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...

RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS
WILL CAUSE GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COMMUTE...AS WELL AS STREET FLOODING AND A RAPID RISE OF
SMALL CREEKS AND RIVERS.

THE STORMS ARE PART OF A LARGE AREA OF STORMS...RESEMBLING AN
INLAND HURRICANE...THAT WERE RACING EASTWARD AT 60 MPH THROUGH THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

MOST FLASH FLOOD FATALITIES OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. IF YOU OBSERVE
WATER COVERING ROADWAYS...DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH IT. TURN
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

JBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
359 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LEAVENWORTH             38.20N  86.35W
05/08/2009  E1.32 INCH       CRAWFORD           IN   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RAINFALL MEASURED OVER A 45 MINUTE PERIOD THIS
            AFTERNOON.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900417

FOSTER